Calendar

This Week – DLTR and AVGO the only notable earnings lead us from a short week into Friday jobs numbers. Conference season is beginning and will be in full swing the next 3 weeks.

Wednesday – JOLTS, Durable Goods, Beige Book

Thursday – ADP Payrolls, ISM Services

Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls

Torrent Trading Observations

• Futures faded early this morning for no 'real' reason, looks like just a giveback of the late rally Fri

• Oil down despite Middle East tensions

• FOMC not until the 18^th

• Levels still the same - 5590/5560 support, 5670 resistance

• For the bulls

  • MULTIPLE sectors breaking to new all-time highs JSpitTrades [x.com] 

  • NYSE summation index with a bull signal SethCL [x.com]

  • Equal-weight S&P suggests more to go SethCL [x.com]

  • Russell 2000 EPS projected to accelerate into year-end SethCL [x.com] 

Futures

DOW +10.2%

S&P +19.09%

Nasdaq +19.96%

Bitcoin +38.37%

10-Year Yield

Oil

Prompt crude futures trade lower by 80c/bbl this morning after the Labor Day holiday weekend in the US closed markets on Monday. Crude has fallen since Friday after Cina’s factory activity and home sales data contracted, suggesting that the country may continue to see disappointing growth in demand this year.

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

WFC, BAC, JPM – DB is out raising WFC and BAC and cutting its rating on JPM. Feels very value oriented.

DHER – Delivery Hero said to tap JPM and MS for IPO.

Visa, MA – BNPP upgraded Visa and downgraded MA.

MTB – Upgraded to overweight at JPM on lower rates driving better credit and EPS growth.

SBUX – Baird putting a $110 PT on the name and maintaining outperform on strong momentum of comps into 2026.

Hotel Strike – The strike is affecting 25 properties in Boston, Hawaii, San Diego, San Fran, and beyond. SHO and HST both are affected on the public side.

GS Conviction Buy List changes – RCL, DG, ALLY removed, IBM, CAG added.

New lease rent growth decelerated to +3.5% in July vs +3.6% in June (this is thought of as a very lagging number).

Job vs. Worker Gap – GS saying the job-workers gap is now at 0.9MM vs a peak of 6MM in early 2022 and 1.3MM on average in 2019. Conclusion – The labor market has rebalanced.

Travel demand comes off the boil as the post-COVID boom begins to plateau, a dynamic that’s leading to a softening in airfares and hotel room rates - NYT

Macau casino revenue comes in ahead of expectations for Aug at +14.8% (vs. the Street +13.2% and up from +11.6% in Jul) - Bloomey

Watches of Switzerland shares jump in European trading after the company said it was on track to hit its prior full-year guidance while demand in the UK and US remains strong - MarketWatch

Technology

AAPL reportedly to use OLED screens on all iPhone models starting next year.

NVDA reportedly focusing beyond supplying chips and looking to offer software, data-center design services and networking technology.

TSLA reportedly planning to unveil its robotaxi at an event at Warner Bros. Discovery's movie studio on 10-Oct.

ABNB is mentioned positively in a WSJ Heard on the Street column, w/the article calling the recent bout of underperformance a compelling buying opportunity - WSJ

AI firms face growing “data frontier” problem as they run out of information to feed into their models - FT

INTC rallied Friday on the report about it potentially exploring a spinoff of its manufacturing operations, although many responded to that headline with skepticism (Intel is probably “considering” a lot of things, but the capital-intensity of the manufacturing business, coupled with the uncertain competitiveness of its technology roadmap vs. industry leaders TSMC and Samsung, will make any deal difficult to execute).

SMCI came out after the Fri close with a formal notification to delay its 10K (recall the company said on 8/28 the K would be delayed).

Industrials 

Elliott reportedly has a big enough stake in LUV to call a special meeting

TSLA: Tesla planning to start making six-seat Model Y in China next year