Trading Observations

• IWM -8% in Dec (worst month since Sept '22); NDX +2.5% in Dec (up 9 of 12 in '24)

• 5927 (50-day) notable, 5850 more meaningful support, 6030 resistance...

• Looks like Santa rally was likely late Nove early Dec and has already been back at the north pole.

• Will the recent sell off lessen the Jan cap gains selling that could have taken place?

• The number of people experiencing homelessness in the U.S. topped 770,000 this year, an increase of more than 18% over 2023, and the highest level on record.

Futures

DOW -449

S&P -73

Nasdaq -300

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial/Healthcare

UNH gave doctors checklists to collect billions more from Medicare Advantage patients - UnitedHealth’s Army of Doctors Helped It Collect Billions More From Medicare [msn.com]

Technology

Notorious NASDAQ: NDX is set to close up ~31% in 2024 .... Higher for the 18th time in 22 years .... Only 3 down months this year .... Just one 10%+ drawdown (in July) .... P/E multiple for Info Tech is at 20+ year highs

Magnificent Seven: Apple -1%, Nvidia -1.6%, Microsoft -0.8%, Alphabet -1.4%, Amazon -1.1% Meta Platforms -1.2%, Tesla -2.5% in premarket trading

AAPL: on 6-week winning streak

Huawei slashes prices of several high end devices Huawei slashes prices of several high-end devices | Seeking Alpha [seekingalpha.com]

GOOGL: CEO warned employees that the company will face increased pressure from regulators and competitors in 2025 (CNBC)

NVDA: looking to robotics to drive its next leg of growth as competition rises in the core AI chip market (Nvidia believes the “ChatGPT moment for physical AI and robotics is around the corner”) (FT)

MSTR - shares fall 3.4% after the company said it bought $209 million of Bitcoin, marking the eighth consecutive week of purchases for the dot-com-era software maker turned leveraged proxy for the original cryptocurrency.

RISE OF ROBOTS: Nvidia will launch its latest generation of compact computers for humanoid robots in the 1H 2025 – named Jetson Thor.

ByteDance Planned to Spend $7 Billion on Nvidia Chips Next Year

SOCIAL MEDIA / TikTok: Trump in a legal filing Friday night asked the Supreme Court to delay the Jan 19 TikTok sell-or-ban deadline to give his incoming administration time to consider the matter (Washington Post)

TTWO/GTA: FT article discusses new Grand Theft Auto game, due out later in 2025, is likely to set records, generating $3B in sales during its first year ..... note GTA V broke records from the start - grossing $800 million in first 24 hours and >$1 billion in 3 days .... all told, the franchise has earned >$8B since 2008

Industrials 

TSLA: -1.5% UBS expects Q4 deliveries on Jan 2 and forecasts deliveries of 510,000, which would be up 5% y/y and 10% q/q (below St) ... perma bear

BA - A Jeju Air Co. plane landing in South Korea crashed on an airport runway and caught fire, resulting in more than 170 people dead or missing. Yonhap reported that the landing gear of the Boeing 737-800 jet malfunctioned, causing it to land on its belly without its wheels deployed.

AAL – Upgraded to outperform at Raymond James

XOM – Forms a death cross.