Morning Note

Calendar

This Week – Earnings Season isn’t over, but has had its crescendo. Lots of Fed speak this week as well as a possible Govt. shutdown and some increased saber rattling on Iran.

Tuesday – Retail Sales, 2 Fed Speakers

Wednesday- Unemployment (Late due to shutdown), 3 Fed Speakers

Thursday – Initial Claims

Friday – CPI

Trading Observations

• The song remains the same with 6860 support vs. 7000 resistance, hopefully make a run at the upper band today

• Couple of notable earnings, DDOG, NET, CRDO higher in AI land, UPWK lower continues the software woes, ON lower in semi land

• As earnings March on, growth highest in 4 years https://tinyurl.com/4kwbm87x [tinyurl.com] 

• Smalls continue to shine https://tinyurl.com/3th48cz9 [tinyurl.com]

• Insider selling rising https://tinyurl.com/26mz9ber [tinyurl.com]

• Dollar noticeably weaker post Japan election, shorts expanding so support close? https://tinyurl.com/2s473u7b [tinyurl.com]

• Inflation expectations coming DOWN https://tinyurl.com/42ufyhys [tinyurl.com]

• Highlighted the spike in short interest yday, has been a very good short-term buy signal https://tinyurl.com/mfjfxhra [tinyurl.com]

• AI impacting college grads disproportionately https://tinyurl.com/mutdv5s8 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -25

S&P -1

Nasdaq +9

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Goldman expects US IPOs to quadruple to record $160B in 2026 – Reuters

GS is looking for automate its back-office functions and has landed on Claude to do so. The tools will automate trade accounting and client onboarding but are still in early stages  https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/anthropic-goldman-sachs-ai-model-accounting.html [cnbc.com]

US deficit shrinks: the federal deficit stood at $696B in the first four months of F26, down ~$143B Y/Y - CBO

HOG – Down 10% - Harley Davidson continues to fall from grace on tariff issues and a 4% decline in motorcycle deliveries in Q4. 13,500 bikes vs 16,400 expected will not help this pure value play. The Ford CEO, who is on the Board, is also leaving. If anyone want to get together and take this company private, reach out, because it needs it.

OSCR (RVER name) – Up 6% on solid outlook. This sector has been a report and miss play, so its goof to see we may have worked through it.

MAR – Up 2% on better international growth. 2026 guide solid on fee growth.

KO – Down 3% - Net revenue growth at 2% and organic sales +4.8% is just a bit boring.

FISV – Down 5%. Margins missed. Enterprise missed, but Clover and Processing beat. Goldman thinks the FY inline guide is enough. $8 in EPS and a $60 stock price should be enough, but nobody cares about valuation plays.

CFG – Baird meetings with management were nothing buy positive.

RV Demand – FY RV demand likely to come in around negative 2%.

UAA – Down 7% on a Citi downgrade to sell.

GT – Goodyear Tire down 7% on results below expectations.

STLA – Jeep’s credit rating cut at Moodys.

RACE – Ferrari up 9% on solid results. K shaped economy for the win.

SPGI – Down 18% - A stock picker favorite, S&P Global with a profit shortfall. MCO down 11% as well.

EVMN – Today’s drug winner is up 100% on a dermatitis win.

CVS earnings beat… kept its 2026 profit guidance …cautious approach has the stock lower in the pre

COIN fall 2.2% after JPMorgan cut its price target on the exchange by 27%, citing lower crypto prices and trading volumes.

Technology

AMZN is launching a marketplace where creators can sell their content to AI firms – The Information

AMZN: leading megacaps ... Citizens raises AWS ests post-4Q25, citing an underappreciated accel in gigawatt additions, now modeling AWS exiting 2026 at ~30.5% growth and sustaining ~28% in 2027, implying ~$14B upside to Street AWS estss and ~$37B of incremental AWS rev .... 3p firm out with initial ~27% estimate for Q1

BKNG: upgraded @ Gordon Haskett - believes investors have overreacted to AI-driven competitive encroachment concerns and discounted key aspects of Booking's operational advantages and defensive positioning; "our highest conviction idea"

CRM Reportedly Trims Workforce, Appoints New Leaders Amid AI Pivot

CRDO: +15% massive upside preannouncement, underscoring that the AI infrastructure buildout boom remains as strong as ever

CSCO is launching a new networking chip that will compete against products from AVGO and NVDA – Reuters

DDOG are up 17% after the software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics and gave a first-quarter revenue forecast that was ahead of the analyst consensus.

PLTR: Michael Burry Says Working on Something Regarding Palantir ....

SHOP: upgraded @ MoffetNathanson - recent tech selloff has created an unusually attractive entry point for a stock that we believe will be a long-term winner in the AI commerce wars

SNAP – Meta’s Instagram is apparently testing a new app that would ratchet up competition with Snap – Biz Insider

TSM - higher following 37% jump in January revenue. Apple and Nvidia are two largest customers.

TTWO: +2.5% upgraded @ RayJ - "on the back of twin fears around the launch of Google’s Project Genie and the presumed impact of AI creation tools to incumbent publishers, exacerbated by the broader sell-off in software on AI replacement fears.

ON - pressured by slightly softer Mar Q guide.

U are up 4.6% after Oppenheimer upgraded the company to outperform from perform.

MNDY – Downgrading to Neutral PT $90 from $175 at Baird

Industrials 

UPS hit with a lawsuit by the Teamsters, which alleges the firm’s latest labor buyout offers violate the terms of their national contract – Reuters

Data center construction – the White House is pushing the tech industry to sign a pledge providing assurances that data center construction won’t drive up electricity prices  - Politico

DD rise 2.4% after the chemicals company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate as health-care and water technologies segment sales grew.

BP - pressured following buyback pause.

Fluence Energy (FLNC) upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies

Frontier Group (ULCC) downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank

Linde Plc (LIN) downgraded to hold from buy at DZ Bank

Masco Corp (MAS) - Q4 EPS beats, FY26 EPS midpoint ahead of consensus, new $2B repurchase announced, stock trading up 5%

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) initiated buy at Roth Capital

WESCO (WCC) - Q4 EBITDA/EPS misses, FY26 EPS midpoint guided below consensus, CFO transition announced, stock trading down 7%

ZTO Express (ZTO) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie

Latest Media

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