Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
November 12, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Gov’t shutdown House approval expected today.
AMD very bullish yesterday and Lisa Su on CNBC this morning talking up demand, sending SMH and TMT higher.
Trump’s Powell replacement selection could arrive before the end of the month), ahead of 12/10 rate decision
Keep eye on this story for 2026 . . AI data centers are drawing political scrutiny as some accuse the infrastructure building boom of driving up electricity prices - WSJ
Consumer may be stretched but they expect to spend at Christmas https://tinyurl.com/37hde9zy [tinyurl.com]
SPX performance after re-open https://tinyurl.com/yvtxd8d7 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +116

S&P +25

Nasdaq +161

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Fintech review of Q3/outlook - Over the past 2-3 weeks, 13 of our fintech companies reported. Almost all underperformed the market, despite nearly all beating on revenue/EPS, and about half raising 2025E EPS guidance

CRCL fall 3.9% in premarket trading after the stablecoin issuer reported that its third-quarter reserve return rate declined.

MAR – Sonder announces bankruptcy plans https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/sonder-to-file-for-bankruptcy-travelers-told-to-leave-hotels-next-day.html

ONON - up big following its beat and raise. THE MOST expensive running shoes on the market…. jumps 20% pre-open - Beat revenue/EBITDA by +4%/+26% and passed through the upside raising the full-year guide / Strongest EBITDA % beat since late-2022

TGT announced the introduction of new AI-powered digital tools aimed at creating a more seamless and personalized holiday shopping experience both online and in stores.

Humans no longer able to distinguish AI generated music from human made tracks https://www.cbs19news.com/humans-can-no-longer-tell-ai-music-from-the-real-thing-survey/article_36b117d6-ba3c-5bca-b394-5c89817224bc.html [cbs19news.com]

Cava (CAVA +2.8%) and Sweetgreen (SG +9.4%) are put on Citi’s 90-day positive catalyst watch, as analyst Jon Tower expects sales to improve off lows as the US government “likely reopens in the coming weeks.” Shorts will get squeezed.

Technology

AMD: +5% said it would achieve a 35% 3-5-year revenue CAGR (the Street is modeling 32% revenue growth this year, 31.4% in ’26, 39.1% in ’27, and ~20% in ’28), with an AI data center chip CAGR of ~80% (the total AI chip TAM is now forecast at $1T by 2030)

AMD Financials: 35% 3-5 year CAGR with >60% CAGR in Core Client + Embedded) with 40 -50% DC CAGR. $1T TAM by 2030. GM 55-58% target by 2030. Numbers get you roughly $16 in ‘28 (street at $12.25) and >$22+ in 2030 (street at $20). Trading at 15x that ‘28 number

APP: weakness Tues.. most ppl citing this: https://engineering.fb.com/2025/11/10/ml-applications/metas-generative-ads-model-gem-the-central-brain-accelerating-ads-recommendation-ai-innovation/ [engineering.fb.com]

ARM are up 0.8% in premarket trading, after Loop Capital raised its price target on the chip-design company to $180 from $155.

BABA/JD/Singles Days: Singles Day shopping event comes to an end with “muted” sales (Reuters) ... JD #s tmrw pre

IBM announced that it is on a path to deliver quantum advantage by the end of next year, and fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029.

ICHR are up 8.1% in premarket trading, after Oppenheimer upgraded the semiconductor equipment company to outperform from market perform.

Foxconn provided a bright outlook for next year, pointing to AI-related demand as a big driver of growth in 2026, and teased an announcement for next week with OpenAI

GFS gains 6.3% after the semiconductor-manufacturing company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

MEMORY: TrendForce's weekly update again highlights spikes in pricing ... Bryson: While mainstream DDR4 spot pricing was only up 7% w/w, NAND 512 Gb TLC spot saw prices lift 17% w/w. Again, we see constraints continuing for some time and would note our convos with module makers over the past week have highlighted sharp increases in contract px and limited available allocation well into next year (even for large customers)

SNDK: +1% continues to defy AI trade gravity along with NAND prices ... up 4 out of 5

Industrials

OKLO: +3.5% Wedbush positive post print - setting the Stage for Nuclear Buildout in the US ... continues to see regulatory acceleration for its projects w/ the DOE authorizing an approval to construct and operate a nuclear facility creating a modern pathway to get new nuclear plants built quickly with operating facilities having an option to transition to NRC licensing and oversight for full commercial ops.

GM wants parts makers to pull supply chains from China https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/general-motors-directs-suppliers-to-remove-chinese-parts-from-supply-chain--report-93CH-2202159Some [ng.investing.com]