Trading Observations

• CPI “Keep Calm and stay invested” this put all rate HIKE fears to rest for now.  In addition up ticks the odds of a July cut.  10 year behaving as well

• JPM + WFC + BLK higher on first blush on numbers

• Dimon: Consumer Spending stayed healthy, including holiday season

• It was notable that 52-wk lows contacted yday on the fade, first sign of a potential bullish divergence

• 5830 continues to hold, a break on CPI and 5675 comes into play

• Need to reclaim 5950 for bulls to regain control

• VIX implying 1.4% move today

• II BULLS down to 42.5% from 52.4% in a week (and just above 40% contrarian buy in bull markets)

Futures

DOW +681

S&P +89

Nasdaq +371

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

Bank Earnings –

WFC – Up 5% - Missed on core earnings, but NII beat as did guidance. Honestly quite marginal under the hood.

JPM – Up 1% - EPS crushed consensus. NII, fees, and markets business were all incredible. ROTCE crushed their own guidance at 20.5% vs 17%. Zero negatives fundamentally.

GS – Up 4% - EPS of $11.95 vs $8.35 street. GS does do that from time to time when trading and I Banking crush the same quarter. The market typically likes but doesn’t love it.

C – Up 6% - They announced a $20B buyback against a $139B market cap, so that is substantial.

BLK – Up 5% - EPS were up 23% y/y, as were overall management fees. Their AUM is $11.55T.

FI – Baird preview thinks its stuck at $200 for the time being given EPS of $10 and a CEO transition deserves no more than 20x in multiple.

Storage – GS positive on move in vs move out dynamics helping rates.

SOFI – Up 6% on risk on and positive Willima Blair notes (along with AFRM).

Technology

Quantum computing stocks higher this am following a recent dip triggered by NVDA CEO Jensen Huang's comment that "very useful" quantum computers are still over a decade away.

AAPL supply chain: China is tightening its scrutiny of Apple and other U.S. tech firms' exports under its dual-use export controls, slowing production expansion in Southeast Asia and India, as Trump again prepares to take office (Nikkei). The tighter custom checks have resulted in delays of days or even weeks on shipments of production equipment and materials to Vietnam an India

ADBE – Upgraded at BNPP on valuation

LRCX: d/g at Wolfe - cites Lam's greater relative exposure to NAND (has become "incrementally bearish" on NAND, with its view that St ests for 2025 and 2026 are too high);

Memory: China is becoming a much larger force in the global memory market and could double its market share this year alone (from 5% to 10%), posing a threat to the likes of Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung (Nikkei)

TikTok: SCOTUS ruling could come @ any moment; TikTok is preparing to shutter its app in the US unless the SCOTUS intervenes on its behalf (The Information) ... Heard could come around 930am ET

NFLX #’s Tues, Jan 21: kicks off US TECH EPS … 8% implied move, convos suggest a wide range of 4Q net add expects and my sense is ~12-13M would be a good outcome, while some higher at ~14-15M ... SET UP A LOT BETTER GIVEN 12% PULLBACK …

The SEC is suing Musk - The complaint alleges Musk of failing to promptly report that he had accumulated more than 5% of the platform's stock in early 2022.

Industrials 

Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP) declares special cash dividend of $1.00/share

Shyft Group Inc/The (SHYF) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $15

XPO Inc (XPO) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $124

GM inked a multi-year agreement with Norwegian company Vianode that will run from 2027 until 2033.