Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
May 13, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Early week – CPI, Digesting Tariff news, mid-week Retail related earnings, late week Powell speaks.

Tuesday – CPI came in at +.2% vs +.3%

Wednesday – 3 Fed Speakers

Thursday – PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Powell Speaks at 8:40am ET at a Conference.

Friday – Housing Starts

Trading Observations

Back to calm markets, CPI came in light
Bond yields not alarming the market yet
Interest rate cuts not likely, while yields down a touch this AM
China lifted the BA airplane ban
EU next in crosshairs but Bessent says that will take longer
Markets still underweight https://tinyurl.com/yccebezj [tinyurl.com]
Recession probabilities down to 20% https://tinyurl.com/36nx8rrc [tinyurl.com]
Earnings sentiment has improved sharply, reflected in stocks https://tinyurl.com/d8c3mnub [tinyurl.com]
Percentage of stocks above 50-day MA also now back to 72.4% and above the late Nov high https://tinyurl.com/ys6m43j9 [tinyurl.com]
Advance decline line has... advanced https://tinyurl.com/2bbcky2k [tinyurl.com]
TSLA with lower sales in China
Mag 7 selling off a little this AM, while Market ex-Mag 7 is higher for the year https://tinyurl.com/n9hm5r7d [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -164

S&P +3.75

Nasdaq +55

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Finacials / Consumer / Healthcare

COIN – Up 10% on S&P 500 inclusion. In general, crypto names are up on this in hopes it continues to legitimize the asset class.

HOOD – Up 2% on purchase of crypto platform WonderFi.

HTZ – Down 6% on earnings and car number miss. High debt load, activists everywhere will make this one volatile.

ONON – Up another 6% after a broad-based beat and raise. +43% y/y revenue is hard to find in consumer discretionary stocks, so everyone is back clamoring for it.

PTON -Upgraded at Macquarie on “leave them alone, people like these things.”.

UAA – Up 3% on a solid quarter as the turnaround isn’t vicious, but its directionally correct.

GS on Insurance Brokers – Turning more positive, upgrading AON and RYAN to buy, downgrading BRO to neutral.

UNH drops 9% after the health insurer suspended its 2025 outlook and said CEO Andrew Witty is stepping down for personal reasons, effective immediately.

Technology

COIN: +9% into S&P 500 May 19

CYBR: boosts FY outlook; call on deck

GETY: boosts FY adj EBTIDA view

GOOGL: I/O May 20-21 huge focus post Eddie Cue / decline Search commentary ... Google will unveil a variety of products at next week’s I/O conf., including a Pinterest-like feature for consumers

PINS: name ppl were warming up too post print ... -3% on Information reported Google may unveil next week a feature that shows images designed to give people ideas for fashion and other types of designs

RDDT: alpha laggard Monday post midday short call from HedgEye - "has 40% dnside over the next 12 months as he believes increasing volatile ad and user behavior in 2H 2025 will drive faster than anticipated rev decel" ... Google moving down RDDT search results in favor of AI overviews and search habits moving away from GOOGL

Semis/AI chips: Trump could strike deals this week in the Middle East for AI firms in the UAE (G42) and Saudi Arabia (Humain) to buy boatloads of chips from Nvidia and AMD (NYT)

SMCI: bullish initiation @ RayJ - "Near AI Pure Play. Key catalysts include contd growth in hyperscale AI infrastructure, ramping of NVIDIA Blackwell platforms, and further penetration of enterprise verticals like finance and healthcare. While recent lumpiness tied to product transitions and limited enterprise services constrain valuation, we believe SMCI’s 25%+ revenue CAGR and expanding U.S. footprint support a re-ratin"

Industrials

Boeing (BA) - China removes ban on airlines taking delivery of Boeing planes - Bloomberg

Carrier Global (CARR) announces additional $1B investment in US manufacturing footprint

Enphase Energy (ENPH) (Triple Wack) downgraded to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, downgraded to underperform from market perform at BMO Capital and downgraded to underweight from overweight at Barclays

FedEx (FDX) - Amazon.com partners with FedEx following UPS withdrawal - Business Insider

First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to outperform from peer perform at Wolfe Research

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays