Torrent Trading Observations

• Healthy consolidation day

• Little incremental as we await Powell Fri

• May get a glimpse at thoughts on inflation with FOMC minutes later

• Backward looking and not likely a mover, but clears signs of softening/normalization of labor market - openings per unemployed person back to pre-covid levels MikeZaccardi [x.com]

• Global liquidity back on the rise following a long-term cycle dailychartbook [x.com]

• Housing - TOL beat on margins (remember high end builder), though orders did pick up in July v May/June.  Prices not falling

• Retail - TGT up big after beating on comps and margins. M down big.  Semis -ADI higher on earnings

• 5585/5490 support.  5670 resistance

• Oscillators did start to roll over based on yest but still very short-term overbought

• Industry weighting breakdown MikeZaccardi [x.com]

Wave Watch

Futures

DOW +70

S&P +10

Nasdaq +33

Mainstream Metrics

10 Year

GOLD

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

TGT – Up 15% on solid sales growth. FY EPS to $9.35 midpoint vs $9.10 previous. Same store sales +2% vs 1% consensus. Visits were up 3%, and the stock was cheap going in, hence this relief rally. Shoppers spent more on non-food items (like WMT) Target cut prices on 5,000 products. Now it's back with a big earnings beat. (yahoo.com) [finance.yahoo.com]

M – Macys down 9% on a very slight revenue cut. Small revenue misses have been punished across the board lately. Q3 guidance looks light as well.

TJX – TJ Maxx up on +4% comps vs 2.5% estimate. Profitability looks solid. This name isn’t as cheap as Target, so we wouldn’t expect a massive rally.

CHWY – Downgraded on valuation at Ray Jay.

GPN – Baird calling the path of least resistance higher into September Analyst Day at 8x 2025E EPS for mid-teens EPS growth. This sector of the market “old school fin-tech” feels completely left behind on valuation to us.

AMZN – India coming out against the mega retailer, saying it is putting 100MM small mom and pop stores in the country at risk.

SBUX – Cut to sell at DZ Bank.

TOL – beat & raise… seeing solid demand for luxury homes (orders fell short of expectations).

LVMH’s Sephora cutting around 10% of staff in China – Bloomey

Technology

MCHP – (late yesterday) revealed "an unauthorized party disrupted the company's use of certain servers and some business operations."

UBER - has brought on Rebecca Tinucci, a former Tesla exec, to lead its $800M push toward EVs as part of its major sustainability plan.

PANW - Argus Research Corp raised the target on Palo Alto Networks Inc. to $400 from $348. Maintains buy rating.

Industrials 

F - Cancelling plans for EVs on the SUV side that will save the co $1.9B. 

Biden approves secret shift in US nuclear weapons posture to account for the rapid growth in China and North Korea’s nuclear arsenals, along with the potential for certain adversaries to work together in challenging Washington – NYT

CXW – Traded lower on Justice Dept investigation of Tennessee prison.

Let’s hope Tom is right! I’ll take the under

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