Morning Note

Calendar

This Week – Almost no earnings and the Fed is in a quiet period, pointing to a trade related week for creating volatility outside CPI Wednesday.

Tuesday –

Wednesday – CPI, ORCL earnings

Thursday – PPI, Initial Claims, ADBE earnings

Friday – U Michigan.

Trading Observations

• Still wrestling with 6000, but little incremental

• China talks potential headlines, Consensus seems to revolve around some relaxation of export controls from both sides (China expected to dial back rare earths restrictions and US expected to relax select tech restrictions)

• CPI Wed and PPI Thurs more significant short-term

• Oscillators short-term overbought

• 5970 first support with 5940 below vs. 6050 first resistance

• New high in Adv/Decl line https://tinyurl.com/bdexv99b [tinyurl.com]

• Close to breakouts that suggest so https://tinyurl.com/4zw6s9u4 [tinyurl.com

• Another case for small caps https://tinyurl.com/ys37vxfn [tinyurl.com]

• Another technical view on  semis https://tinyurl.com/y4xkfdsm [tinyurl.com]

• Wage pressures easing https://tinyurl.com/2kwbsyt [tinyurl.com]

• Housing prices remain under pressure https://tinyurl.com/32zdts6v [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +20

S&P +9

Nasdaq +38

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

FLUT - FanDuel will introduce a new 50c transaction fee on each bet placed on its platform in Illinois after the state introduced a new transaction fee for licensed operators on sports wagers.

MCD fall 1.3% in premarket trading after Redburn downgrades the restaurant chain to sell from buy, saying weight-loss drugs are suppressing consumer appetites and presenting an under-appreciated longer-term threat.

SJM falls 7% after the packaged-food company projected profit for the coming fiscal year that trailed Wall Street’s expectations, continuing a challenging run for the biggest US packaged food producers.

Vaccines – Yesterday shortly after the close, RFK Jr. announced all 17 members of the CDC’s ACIP would have their contracts terminated. In a news release, the Department of Health and Human Services, which Kennedy leads, described the move as a "bold step in restoring public trust."

Technology

Tesla (TSLA) +2.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +1%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.7%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.1%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.1%, Apple (AAPL) little changed, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.2%

The surging shares of CoreWeave Inc. and Palantir Technologies Inc. are drawing comparisons to meme stocks — whose rapid gains are fueled by retail trader fervor more than financial performance. 

AAPL WWDC: focus on liquid glass versus Apple Intelligence; anncd some features that Samsung has had that as an AI feature for 2 years now ... good summary from Tom's Guide: https://www.tomsguide.com/news/live/wwdc-2025 [tomsguide.com]

Analog Semis: some good looking charts here post flurry of positive updates in recent weeks (MCHP, ON, STM, etc). IFX making new highs in German trading

CRCL: +4% in pre

CVNA: BofA positive - continues to expect some shift from new to used to benefit Carvana, helping drive continued share gains

DUOL: laggard Monday as was index migration candidate and Tech winners sold ... MS lays out the "Triple-Double" bull case for Duolingo to double users, double revenue per user, and double margin, which, if achieved, would lead to about $2B of EBITDA

TSLA: +3% in pre .... now up 11% from early Monday lows; both Musk/Trump showing signs of easing feud

IBM: massive breakout on chart .... headlines this am: Co plans to build fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029; expected to perform 20,000 times more operations than today's quantum computers.

RF Semis: QRVO, SKWS get '90-Day Upside Catalyst Watch' at Citi

UBER/AV push: +1.3% AI startup Wayve and Uber announced a first-ever plan to develop and launch public-road trials of Level 4 fully AVs in London.

TSMC Strong Sales: May sales of NT$320.52bn, +39.6 yoy and -8.3% mom. Taiwan exports hit record high in May with US-bound shipments surging 87.4%. Taiwan's total exports of electronic components gained 28.4% in May on the year to $17.2bn, with semiconductor exports up 30.1%.

TTGT fall 5.9% in US premarket trading after the marketing software firm is downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan as a turning point in the near term is not yet in sight.

Industrials 

This morning, prompt crude futures trade up by ~30c/bbl, extending yesterday’s gains after closing up by over 50c/bbl. The US and China are continuing yesterday’s trade negotiations in London today, where the market continues to watch for signs of progress in reaching an agreement on exports of key industrial goods, including rare earth metals.

AAON: Publishes investor day presentation; reaffirms FY25 revenue growth +mid-to-high teens y/y vs. cons +18.7%. 

VRT: GS Research modestly raises estimates and PTs for VRT, FLEX, JBL and APH to reflect positive datapoints in the datacenter end market as well as higher peer/market multiples.  

Latest Media

$ELF is up +30% after the Rhode acquisition!

Let’s take a look beyond the $1B transaction headline