Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
July 14, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

More tariff headlines, still viewed as posturing (EU suspend counter tariffs til August 11th) so for now, impact muted
CPI tomorrow a big focus, then earnings ramp later in the week
FAST numbers out and stock higher
Short-term oscillators still very overbought
6230/6175 support vs. 6285 resistance
Economic surprise index improving https://tinyurl.com/4ketjsxa [tinyurl.com]
Sentiment has improved, but still supportive https://tinyurl.com/3xapc8bf [tinyurl.com]
Transports on the verge of a 4 YEAR breakout (not bearish if it happens) https://tinyurl.com/47x2mxtk [tinyurl.com]
Need more breadth to sustain the move higher https://tinyurl.com/y4ubev24 [tinyurl.com]
Small cap short positioning nearing extremes https://tinyurl.com/ms6sjpkb [tinyurl.com]
Despite the rally, tech cheaper https://tinyurl.com/287xmhk4 [tinyurl.com]
Housing needs rates to come down https://tinyurl.com/2cmsdwj7 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -157

S&P -19

Nasdaq -69

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Bitcoin related all leading the way in financials. HOOD up another $3 through $100.

HBAN – Down 2% on a $1.9B stock deal for Veritex (VBTX up 17%), a Dallas retail and small business bank.

UPST – Down 6% as it was assumed sell at GS. AFRM down 3% as well.

ALLY – Up 2% on an upgrade to neutral at BTIG.

PAY – Up 3% on a Ray Jay upgrade.

SFIX – Up 8% on a William Blair upgrade on new CEO confidence.

KVUE – Up 6% as activists successfully oust the CEO (never happens, so congrats).

PG – Downgraded at Evercore ISI on share loss.

MA – Defended at Seaport on overblown stablecoin fears.

PYPL – Upgraded to neutral at Seaport.

SOFI – Downgraded to market perform at Citizens after this terrific run.

JPM – Dimon calls Private Credit dangerous, and he wants JPM to dominate. – WSJ

Mastercard/MA: hosting Information Session: Agentic Commerce and Stablecoins @ 10am ET

Technology

AAPL has reportedly offered up to $150M for US rights to Formula One races.

ADSK 8K: +3% Autodesk issued an 8K this morning in which it seems to refute the recent speculation about a deal to purchase PTC (-3%)

AMZN: Amazon Prime Day fuels 30.3% rise in US online spend

CRWD: -1.8% d/g at MS - "sees a full valuation with the shares up 50% from the April lows. CrowdStrike still offers a compelling long-term story, but the expected second half of 2025 growth acceleration now looks well priced into the stock"

FOXA positive: sees a surge in advertising revenue as the world attempts to reach an audience of one: Donald Trump (FT)

GOOGL: Shrs shrugged off multiple negative headlines which would’ve sent stock down 5%+ not too long ago. AI positioning strengthening + stock has been in 'buy the dip' mode since I/O Conf mid-May ... AI / Search threat debate lessening

GOOGL to pay $2.4B to license technology of AI coding startup Windsurf and will hire its CEO and some employees

MEMORY WEAK / EDGEWATER CHECKS: MU -3.7%, SNDK -3.7% .... (1)DRAM feedback turning more guarded into C4Q and early CY26 with greatest concerns around potential oversupply.

NVDA: added $1B tril mkt cap in 2 mos ... Jensen plans to hold a media briefing in China on Jul 16 (Reuters)

Nvidia CEO urges US to reduce dependency, onshore tech manufacturing for economic security – CNN

Semi Restrictions (AMD NVDA): Malaysia announced new stringent rules on Monday aimed at curbing the illicit shipment of Nvidia/AMD AI chips into China (WSJ)

SHOP: bullish init at Needham - "crwShopify remains in just the mid-cycle of a durable growth opportunity, as consumer spending remains strong and the recent U.S. tax bill can spur near-term consumer spend that can positively impact Shopify's GMV"

SNPS and ANSS higher after China granted conditional approval of deal.

Industrials

American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS

FAST – Q2 beats, June ADS essentially in-line with Baird – reported Q2 of $2.08B in revenue, Operating Income of $436.1M and EPS of $0.29, compared to cons of $2.07B/$428M/$0.28. June ADS came in +9.8%, compared to Baird estimate of +9.9%. FAST ticking up 3.5% pre-market.

Fluence Energy (FLNC) downgraded to neutral from outperform at Mizuho Securities

Nextracker (NXT) downgraded to neutral from outperform at Mizuho Securities

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) downgraded to neutral from buy at Guggenheim Securities

Shoals Technologies (SHLS) downgraded to neutral from outperform

Vestis (VSTS) downgraded to underweight from neutral

Visteon (VC) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS