Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
October 06, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Earnings don’t get started until next week, so this week is all Fed speakers with Powell on Thursday.

Tuesday – Trade Balance, 5 Fed speakers. 2x of them are Miran, who likely speaks as dovish as he can.

Wednesday – FOMC Minutes, 5 more Fed Speakers

Thursday – Powell Speaks at 8:30am Est. Initial jobless claims out too.

Friday – Goolsbee speaks (more hawkish).

Trading Observations

International dominating with Japan up, France down, but at the end of the day, not really driving us
Market continues to push higher with tech (AI) leading
Power https://tinyurl.com/9s7p2k93 [tinyurl.com]
AMD up 30% premkt as OpenAI Inks AMD Chips Deal Worth Tens of Billions of Dollars
Transports close to joining the party https://tinyurl.com/579tmtp4 [tinyurl.com]
As the calendar deepens and many behind, the chase likely continues
Blue skies above (long-term trendline comes in roughly 7200) vs. 6700 and 6625 first support zones
Smalls fwiw https://tinyurl.com/4ur3ccpk [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +99

S&P +20

Nasdaq +197

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Baird Fin-Tech Earnings preview – Looking for solid beats and accelerating growth – GPN, XYZ. Mild beats coming – V, MA, and expect a beat but don’t like valuation, TOST.

JPM downgrading ANF and BBWI on checks.

TPG – Upgraded to overweight at JPM. Alternative asset managers have sold off recently on private credit concerns on high bankruptcy filings, but they think the risk is idiosyncratic.

KLAR – Initiated outperform at JPM.

Baird checks on decking – Positive sell through for AZEK and TREX read positivity into the space.

COIN: seeks approval from the OCC to expand into markets such as payments (Bloomberg)

HOOD: in talks to bring its prediction market products to the UK (FT)

PYPL: announced that U.S. customers will earn 5% cash back on PayPal Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) purchases between now and the end of the year

COST [streetaccount.com] to offer big discounts on NVO [streetaccount.com]'s Ozempic and Wegovy for members. -> Hit late Friday

LLY said it would spend $1B to expand manufacturing in India – Reuters

Technology

AMD: +24% companies have struck a deal whereby OpenAI will purchase 6GW worth of AMD AI chips over the coming years (OpenAI will make the purchases either directly or via its data center partners). AMD’s CEO says the agreement has a value of up to “tends of billions of dollars” (in revenue) over the next 5 years (according to remarks in a WSJ interview). AMD will hand over warrants for up to 160M of its shares to OpenAI as part of the transaction (if all the warrants are exercised, OpenAI will wind up with a 10% stake in AMD)

xAI is burning huge amounts of money as it builds a massive second data center in Memphis in an effort to capture market/mind share in the AI boom – WSJ

AMZN - Baird - Our "expert call" last week also reinforced steady + positive e-commerce and Amazon advertising checks, investor sentiment remains mixed though investor interest is high.

INTC: +90% since Aug 1 (vs NVDA +8%) ... since 2010: INTC +90% vs NVDA +66,021%

INTC: a post on SemiAccurate expresses extreme skepticism that AMD will use Intel as a foundry

MU/Memory: +3.5% MS upgrading - Co will see multiple quarters of double-digit price increases, which can drive "substantially higher earnings power,"; believes this will alleviate any lingering questions on specialty high bandwidth memory for artificial intelligence. Morgan Stanley's DRAM and NAND channel checks continue to inflect positively, with buyers "showing anxiety" about availability through all of 2026 amid strong server and storage demand. It believes Micron will see multiple quarters of upward earnings revisions.

PLTR shares saw pressure Friday after a Reuters report expressed skepticism about a new Army battlefield communication network being built by the company (in partnership with others), although the firm pushed back on the article’s conclusions, saying the issues highlighted have already been addressed – Bloomey

US-China: Beijing has offered a $1trl US investment pledge in return for reduced tariffs on imported inputs used by US-built Chinese factories. China also wants softened national security restrictions on its proposed investments in the US.

Industrials

5 killed as Russia launches 500 drones targeting multiple Ukrainian regions. Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine's railway and energy infrastructure ahead of winter, targeting critical civilian utilities to isolate frontline communities and disrupt military transport.

OPEC+ will increase production by a modest 137K BPD in Nov, less than the 500K number talked about in the media in recent days (concerns about a supply glut were behind the smaller hike) – Reuters

Axalta (AXTA) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $34

BA - to boost 737 MAX production as soon as this month.

Emerson Electric (EMR) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Wells Fargo Securities; $140 PT

Ford Motor (F) upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies; $12 PT

Lennox International (LII) upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Wells Fargo Securities; $575 PT

Mobileye Global (MBLY) upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank; $19 PT

FLY - Shares surged after the company announced plans to acquire national security technology firm SciTec for about $855M, comprising $300M in cash and $555M in Firefly shares issued at $50 per share, with the deal expected to close by the end of 2025.