Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
September 19, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Futures quiet on Op ex Friday
We saw some decent rotation yday that may have been early Op ex motion
Healthy rotation with small caps benefitting the most, with IWM new highs, first in 4 years https://tinyurl.com/3bv89pfc [tinyurl.com]
The most shorted ripped up 15% in a week https://tinyurl.com/2tud3nep [tinyurl.com]
- KBW bank Index new highs, joining many ATH’s https://tinyurl.com/5x5vnucw [tinyurl.com]
Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) for Nasdaq staying at 84 yday, the S&P has crept up to 82... 85 is considered too giddy
A pullback would not be a surprise to chartists https://tinyurl.com/bp5n6jre [tinyurl.com]
Trump talking to Xi this am... TikTok and Soybeans on the docket
Weekly equity flows biggest since Dec 24 https://tinyurl.com/wjz6fhk3 [tinyurl.com]
All you need to know on the dollar weakness https://tinyurl.com/4ysdej3j [tinyurl.com]
White House plan $550B factory building and infrastructure fund https://tinyurl.com/5ak5uzu8 [tinyurl.com]
Strong gains after Fed cuts after holding steady for 6 months https://tinyurl.com/yabnxehu [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +70

S&P +11

Nasdaq +37

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Casino Stocks – WYNN, LVS and MGM all higher as visitor arrivals to Macau were tracked at 15.5% in August.

LPLA – Core metrics were a bit softer, but First Horizon onboarding is helping. Organic growth in the~4% range.

DNUT – Up another 4% as retail chases Kash Patel’s buy.

LEN – Homebuilder Lennar down 3%. New orders 20,500 vs 21,000 estimated isn’t great for next quarter. Deliveries of 22,500 vs 25,600 estimated is worse.

CMG – Reiterated buy at Cowen.

LNC – Up 4% on an upgrade at MS as they like how the turnaround is going.

Technology

TSLA +1%, NVDA -0.2%, GOOGL +0.3%, MSFT +0.2%, AAPL +1.3%, AMZN +0.6%, META +0.6%

AI JOB CUTS – Vision Fund mulls 20% job cuts after Son’s pivot to AI

AMD – slow grind off lows during Thurs rally .... NVDA/INTC press conf eased some of the initial concerns that this deal was a massive negative. Feedback heard from ppl today was that stock trades on the GPU # and success of Mi3xx/Mi4xx rather than Gaming/CPU

AMZN – 3p continues to track 1-3ppts above street for NA and int’l retail ....

AV Wars – NVDA in advanced talks to invest $500MM in UK autonomous driving startup Wayve (FT)

GOOGL – announced it will be integrating its Gemini AI technology into the Chrome browser, the company’s latest move to battle back against upstart competitors like OpenAI and Perplexity

Memory/Storage – Mizuho positive STX/WDC/SNDK

MICRON / MU – -2% on heels of 12 day winning streak / RSI 86. Easy target for profit taking with EPS four days away. Negative DigiTimes article: "Samsung gains edge as Micron falters on Nvidia's HBM4 demands" ....

NVDA – the White House is considering whether to allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-down version of Blackwell in China, but “it is far from a done deal” as Trump faces pressure from security hawks opposed to bolstering China’s technology industry (WSJ)

• Great day ysrdy for Nvidia investors .... $5B investment will go a long way in the coming 3 years and Jensen being able to get things done

NVDA – Rubin CPX GPU revolutionizes AI inference while reshaping memory supply chains (DigiTimes)

TTWO – multiplayer shooter "Borderlands 4," which launched Sept 12, has surpassed 2.5M players across all platorms, including PC, Xbox, and PlayStation consoles, amounting to revs of >$150M, according to Alinea Analytics.

TSLA – Upgraded to Buy at Baird on Physical AI Inflection Ahead

Industrials

CWST – initiated underweight at Barclays; $88 PT

CHRW – Baird Analyst Event: Baird's Webcast Friday, September 19, 2025 at 11:00 A.M. ET Hosted by: Dan Moore

CLH – initiated equal weight at Barclays; $253 PT

GTX – initiated buy at Stifel; $17.50 PT

GFL – initiated overweight at Barclays; $62 PT

IEX – increases share repurchase authorization to $1B

MEG – initiated overweight at Barclays; $35 PT

SITE – upgraded to buy from hold at Loop Capital Markets; $160 PT

UPS – downgraded to market perform from outperform at BMO Capital Markets; $96 PT