Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
August 18, 2025

Morning Note

presented by -

Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php

Calendar

This Week – Retail earnings to start, with all eyes on Powell to finish the week.

Monday – Housing Index, PANW earnings

Tuesday – Housing Starts, HD Earnings

Wednesday – FOMC Minutes, TGT, LOW, TJX earnings

Thursday – Jobless Claims, WMT, ROST, WDAY earnings

Friday – Powell speaks at 10am Est.

Trading Observations

Opex out of the way, so may be some overhang to work thru this morning, but all eyes on Fed talk
FOMC minutes Wed with Powell at Jackson Hole Fri
Range still 6400-6500
7400 (and rising) now the top on LONG TERM trendline https://tinyurl.com/mr2prdcb [tinyurl.com]
New Highs/New Lows not flashing any warnings https://tinyurl.com/yc73ww6y [tinyurl.com]
Corporate debt/US treasury premiums lowest since 1998 https://tinyurl.com/bdzk8ytp [tinyurl.com]
Consumer credit not stretched https://tinyurl.com/cy2n5xxr [tinyurl.com]
For the bears, put buying drying up https://tinyurl.com/5ykrtrd5 [tinyurl.com]
Price/book higher than 2000 https://tinyurl.com/53vc3dsn [tinyurl.com]
A look at the Goldman sentiment indicator, a thread https://tinyurl.com/zbbhw8px [tinyurl.com]
Decent take from Dan Niles https://tinyurl.com/47etxp6c [tinyurl.com]
Hedge funds continue to press shorts against smalls https://tinyurl.com/9kpat5jx [tinyurl.com]
Risk outperforming https://tinyurl.com/5xd4a4xe [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +18

S&P -3

Nasdaq -21

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

VIX

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose to record peaks in June, topping $9 trillion for a fourth straight month, data from the Treasury Department showed on Friday. Holdings of U.S. Treasuries climbed to $9.13 trillion in June, up from $9.05 trillion in May. Compared with a year earlier, Treasuries owned by foreigners were up nearly $1 trillion, or 10% higher.

HD – Baird preview thinks comp expectations achievable and FY guidance secure. There is an unfavorable calendar shift the street doesn’t have in their numbers however. Fed cuts the next inflection.

Monthly Investment Banking activity +11% y/y, but down from a strong June. Don’t let anyone tell you the IPO market is currently closed.

GS Economist says the slower job growth makes a case for a cut in September.

SHCO – Soho House agrees to a $2.7B take private deal. Went public at $14, getting taken private at $9. Too much debt left the equity holder out of returns here.

WULF – Up another 12% on GOOGL stake upped to 14%.

CVS – Upgraded to buy at UBS.

APLD – Announced they will break ground on a $3B AI facility in North Dakota this year.

Citi – Said to have now poached more than 10 JPM bankers.

NVO received FDA clearance for Wegovy use to treat liver disease.

NVO - Novo Nordisk A/S is slashing the cost of Ozempic for cash-paying patients after the diabetes shot became the poster child for high US drug prices.
Patients can now get Ozempic for $499 a month — about half of its US list price — through Novo’s cash-pay pharmacy NovoCare

GOODRX SHARES JUMP 13% PREMARKET ON NOVO PARTNERSHIP

UNH are up 2.8% premarket, set to extend the 12% rally on Friday, after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and other investors bought shares in the health insurer.

Technology

AAPL market share reportedly slipped in favor of Samsung.

CRWV insiders sold more than $1B in stock via block sales late last week following the lockup expiration – FT

META is planning another restructuring of its AI initiatives, the fourth such move in the last 6 months – The Information

TSLA announced cuts to UK leasing prices by as much as 40%.

OpenAI employees reportedly eyeing $6B share sale, potentially valuing company at $500B.

Industrials

Defense stocks and energy markets are set to dominate attention this week after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled he wants Ukraine to accept a swift peace agreement with Russia, raising the prospect of a major geopolitical realignment, Reuters reported Sunday

Solar stocks extend last Friday’s gains, as FSLR was up 3% and RUN climbed 3.3% after the Trump administration released new guidance on clean energy tax credits Friday that were better than feared for solar companies.

Alta Equipment Group (ATLG) downgraded to neutral from buy at DA Davidson; $8 PT

Ameresco (AMRC) upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; $23 PT

CSX Corp (CSX) downgraded to market perform from outperform at BMO Capital Markets; 38$ PT

NEXTracker (NXT) upgraded to buy from neutral at Guggenheim Securities