Trading Observations

• Futures up despite hot PPI after yesterday’s CPI, Reciprocal Tariffs!!

• Supposedly TODAY was the latest from Trump this am within the last hour

• Took European stocks down a little from their highs on hopes of peace and redevelopment in Ukraine

• It's been a trend for a while but given Trump and Putin talking worth highlighting…. UBXERCON index at ATH's https://tinyurl.com/5hc72wu8 [tinyurl.com]

• Impressive rally off the 100- day yday around 6000 support vs. 6100 resistance remains a hurdle yet to jump

• Every dip seems to get bought, especially PLTR and META... Small & Mids not so much

• Is it Retail buying? Retail investors pouring money into levered ETFs https://tinyurl.com/je4ht5yp [tinyurl.com] PLEASE WATCH OUR VIDEO ON THESE ETF’s….. over time massive erosion.

• Yday's news but Inflation mapped https://tinyurl.com/3jr4rhem [tinyurl.com]

Upgrades – T, CASY, CSCO, KO, CVS, CYTK, DD, GILD, HUBS, JAZZ, MANH, VPG

Downgrades – TXG, ASPN, GD, KRG, KHC, M, OLN, TGT (stock has really been hit since backtracking on DEI initiatives), TTD

Futures

DOW +99

S&P +11

Nasdaq +68

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

HOOD – Up 14% - Top and bottom-line beat, and January metrics were strong as well. People continue to trade options and stock on a way too regular basis, with HOOD one of the winners. EBITDA margins were an eye popping 60.5%.

CROX – Up 17% - Great earnings and shipments. China going well. But we would point out the $1B buyback against $7B market cap is doing the lifting here.

BROS –Up 26% - Comps up 6.9%, EBITDA +41% y/y. This is how you public restaurant.

Joann Fabrics to close 533/800 US locations.

HTZ – Down 15% on larger than expected loss. This industry continues to prove its almost un-investible. HTZ sits on a huge debt pile, so the equity could easily be a $0.

SN – Shark Ninja up 5% on talks to cut out China entirely in their supply chain.

CROX – EPS beat; upsizes share buyback authorization by $1B

NVO - Ozempic shown to reduce drinking in first trial https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/12/health/ozempic-alcohol-use-disorder-trial/index.html [cnn.com]

Nestle posts better-than-expected annual sales growth

YETI - beat 4Q EPS on slight rev upside and leaner SG&A

TAP – Q4 results boosted by pricing and sales mix

RCL – boosting dividend & approves $1B buyback

MGM shares jump 9.2% in premarket trading after the gaming and entertainment company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that came in ahead of estimates.

TGT and Macy’s (M) shares fall in premarket trading after Gordon Haskett downgraded the stocks in anticipation of lackluster first-quarter and full-year forecasts from retailers reporting earnings in the coming weeks.

Technology

Amazon has postponed its mandate for 350,000 corporate employees to return to the office five days a week starting in January, citing space constraints. - WSJ

ADBE: another close above 50D last night; eleased their Firefly video model to mixed reviews which includes text to video, image to video, and translate video. ADBE will want customers to believe this is only commercially safe video model

APP: +30% blowout / crushed bogeys / testing $500; clear and material contribution to ad network rev from non-gaming advertisers. Q1 guide for advertising/software rev rowth >50%. Slowly gaining a huge share of the $15 billion ad spending inside mobile games, driving its recent outsized results

BABA - Alibaba says it will partner up with Apple's AI in China – FT…. The collaboration is intensifying on AI large model technology, but it remains unclear whether Apple will exclusively work with a single company.

CSCO - Increasing stock buyback program by $15B. Gary Steel , ex CEO of SPLK leaving (search for SPLK head)….Tariffs impacts dynamic, pre-loaded impact. The standout in the quarter was Service provider order growth of 75%

CSCO/AI: says enterprises are starting to prepare for AI – “we're starting to see growth in AI orders from enterprise customers, as this large market opportunity starts to open up and enterprises seek seamless installation and security partners for production environments that leverage their proprietary data”

DDOG: -10% FY rev guide below; missed buyside expects for qrtr. Sentiment decent downtick q/q ... Conf call 8am ET - 1 844-543-0451 password: 6996102

FSLY: -20% growth slowed; elevated investments ... rev growth and margin profile is underwhelming and likely requires the security business to inflect for shares to re-rate

GOOGL/QUANTUM DEBATE: GOOGL CEO says a “practically useful” quantum computer is probably 5-10 years away (he thinks quantum computing now is like where AI was in the 2010s) (Bloomberg)

Musk says Grok 3 AI chatbot coming within matter of weeks, outperforms vs rivals – Bloomey

INTC - Reportedly the US has presented 3 proposals to TSMC, under which TSMC would invest in Intel’s standalone Foundry unit and also build an advanced packaging facility in the US - Digitimes

META – a LOT of talk about the 18-day win streak at this point… that is almost 4 weeks of trading days. Insanity

RDDT - user growth missed…. Q4 earnings beat but posted slightly lower user growth vs elevated expectations (stock +30% year to date)…Called out "volatility" with traffic from Google Search; traffic from search has since recovered in Q1

RPD shares are down 2.6% in premarket trading after the software company gave an outlook that is weaker than expected as it increases investments.

TSLA: +2.6% State Dept. plans to buy $400MM worth of armored Cybertrucks (WSJ)

UBER: +60bps battleground stock / how quickly FSD narrative shifting as now ppl see UBER as #1 winner as biggest demand aggregator

Industrials 

DE trading down 5% - 1Q25 First Take: Operating Miss, More Pressure in Large Ag - Operating miss, guidance reiterated as lower P&PA operating income is offset by lower tax, dealer inventories lower year/year. 1Q25 operating miss (revenue and margin below consensus across all segments), optically the company delivered a slight EPS beat which was a function of nonoperating items

BA – Trump saying his NOT happy w/ service from Boeing on planes (yest after the close)

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities

DuPont de Nemours (DD) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $89

Olin (OLN) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $33