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Market Snapshot
River1 Asset Management
September 23, 2025
Morning Note
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Calendar
This Week – Way too many Fed speakers against a backdrop of few earnings keeps us in macro.
Tuesday – 3 Fed Speakers including Powell at 12:35pm. Services PMI. AZO and MU earnings.
Wednesday – New Home Sales
Thursday –7 Fed Speakers. Goolsbee likely the most important (hawk). Durable goods, initial jobless claims. COST and KMX earnings.
Friday – Core PCE
Trading Observations
Flash PMIs, Powell speech later (though not likely to veer much from last week so shouldn't move markets)
MU earnings after the close
Blue skies above with 6625 (minor) 6475-6500 (more significant) support zones should we pull back
Put buying scarce https://tinyurl.com/yc7zb23s [tinyurl.com]
Breadth bad Fri, a bit better yesterday
A/D line tops out well ahead of S&P, the first hint of divergence in last few days... something to monitor over coming weeks anyway https://tinyurl.com/yrffsue3 [tinyurl.com]
With smalls trying to breakout, it has been lower quality driving thus far https://tinyurl.com/5n89yapn [tinyurl.com]
Futures
DOW +45
S&P -2
Nasdaq +3
Charts/Sentiment
CNN Fear/Greed Index | U.S. 10 Year Treasury |
Gold | Bitcoin |
Financials / Consumer / Healthcare
COLD – Downgraded to underweight on this cold storage REIT.
LULU – Baird downgrades to neutral (very late). They think growth and margins are meh, which is what happened in the past. Stock is unchanged, which shows how washed out it already is.
LULU - NikeSKIMS, an athletic/lifestyle apparel brand born from partnership between Nike and Kim Kardashian’s SKIMS, are set to launch Friday, Sept. 26, after being delayed by production issues.
TOST – Stock was lower as they changed the price of their startup service, but in error. They’ve changed it back and we will see if the stock recovers.
Baird on restaurant comps – Steady, but some demand indicators are a hair soft for September.
DKS – GS reinstating at Buy.
WEN – Down on an Argus downgrade.
NKE – To debut collab with Kim K’s skims after initial delays.
KVUE – Tylenol owner up 5% after a very bad day yesterday and some Trump pushback.
Technology
AI Power/Nuclear: some big reversals higher off earlier lows - OKLO, GEV, VRT, etc .... 10GW is roughly “ten nuclear reactors” worth of data-center draw
CRWV: +3% upgraded at Wells + Melius ... WFC: "positioned to benefit from the elevated build cycle and hyperscaler industry shortages into 2026; believes supply constraints continue, with hyperscaler shortages continuing through early 2026, creating potential for CoreWeave to win market share. In addition, Nvidia's recent backstop to buy all unused capacity through 2032 gives CoreWeave a "blank check" to build out new capacity for six years"
LRCX: -1.5% catching downgrade @ KeyBanc - believes strong memory pricing may take time to drive new tool demand. As such, Lam's near-term earnings upside may not support the "sizable" recent rally in the shares. Sees a more favorable set up for AMAT
META: Citi is more positive on Meta Platforms' AI glasses following Meta Connect. Believes adoption of the glasses could reach a "tipping point" in 2026
MU: #s tonight / conf call at 430pm ET / ~9% implied move ...... sentiment is very bullish given favorable demand fueled by AI, rapid price hikes, favorable demand/supply dynamics. Previews universally bullish. Expect extremely bullish commentary with focus on margins, HBM ramp/potential oversupply concerns
NVDA/OAI: OpenAI says the Nvidia deal struck on Monday isn’t exclusive, and the AI giant will continue working with large cloud companies and other chipmakers (CNBC)
OMC: +4.3% Wells Fargo upgrading into IPG deal close; analysis indicates that media advertising is experiencing secular strength due to cost and complexity
ON: onsemi to Acquire Vcore Power Technology from Aura Semiconductor to strengthen AI Data Center leadership
ONTO: +3% upgraded @ Jefferies on rev accel
PLTR: +1.6% BofA bullish / PT to $215 - cites stronger growth across Palantir's applications for the target hike. It views AI forward deployed engineers as an accelerator of co's growth
TSLA: UBS sees Tesla's Q3 deliveries 8% above consensus; Mizuho positive
Industrials
HOND (Terrestrial Energy) Barrons.com: Nuclear Stocks Are Soaring. We Size Up the Prospects for 3 New Ones.
BA rise 2.5% premarket after the planemaker secured an order from Uzbekistan Airways and the US ambassador to China indicated a major order from the world’s second-largest economy is close to being finalized.
FLY trading down 10% after reporting Q2 revenue and net income below consensus expectations
MP initiated outperform at Daiwa; $80 PT
OKLO downgraded to neutral at Seaport Research Partners
SYM downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; $35 PT
URI upgraded to outperform at Bernstein; $1,128 PT