Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
June 30, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Voting and hopefully passing of Big Beautiful Bill will dominate. A potentially dovish Wednesday Powell could help too, anchored by Jobs data Thursday.

Monday – End of Month/Quarter. Chicago PMI. Two Fed speakers

Tuesday – Powell Speaks 1pm. JOLTS, Global Manufacturing ISM, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales, STZ earnings (alcohol sales have been rough).

Wednesday – ADP Employment

Thursday – Non-Farm Payrolls, Initial jobless claims, factory orders, durable goods, ISM services.

Friday - Off

Trading Observations

End of the month/quarter today smells of risk on as crypto and beta are all up pre-market. Strange calendar because most of the rebalancing is likely done.
Some odd end of day moves Friday as names like PLTR traded down 9% in the last few minutes. Russell rebalancing is being blamed. Those stocks are recovering the shock moves.
What’s not priced in? (low probability likelihood)
- BBB not passing before Friday
- Iran/Israel back at it
- Q2 earnings misses from tariffs or consumer slowdown
It feels like we need a new negative catalyst to stop upward momentum. No signs currently.

Futures

DOW +225

S&P +21

Nasdaq +117

Today’s Sign of the Top –

JOBY (Electric helicopters) up 6% on an announcement they will start air taxi service in Dubai. Current Enterprise Value $7B, current revenue $0.

Oil – Sorry longs, not your year again -

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

US Banks – CCAR results are out and were largely as expected. De-regulation looks to be largely priced into large cap banks at these prices. MTB and COF big winners as expected. GS an unexpected winner is up 4% (they aren’t expecting trading losses in a big blow-up scenario).

CRCL – JPM initiates at Underweight and an $80 PT ($180 last, $240 high). They like stablecoin and the first mover here but basically called the valuation crazy. Overall, 6 buys, 6 holds and 2 sells on the initiations is quite dour compared to most IPOs.

SPG – Buys Swire properties in Brickell City Center.

NDAQ – Reiterated at Buy at GS.

MRNA – Up 3% on solid results on its flu shot.

Technology

RBLX – JPM taking PT up on “Grow a Garden” success.

HPE, JNPR – Both up 9-10% on reaching an agreement with the US justice department.

ORCL – Up 6% on announcing a $30B cloud services deal.

Tik-Tok – Said to have a consortium of US buyers (feels like a murderer’s row of rich social celebs).

Industrials

Solar – BBB continues to look bad for the industry as projects need to be completed by 2027 to get the incentive. At this point, the stocks are so beaten down there’s not much left negativity to be had.

KTOS – Upgraded to buy at GS. Initiated AVAV, DRS, KAE at buy as well. Everyone very positive on new defense tech names.

RIVN – VW increasing its stake and pushing its second tranche of the $1B investment.

UPS – GS took numbers down post FDX.

SUN, FSLR – Higher on a small change to BBB that could help corporate tax help on projects.