Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
April 17, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Earnings heavy. 9 Fed speakers are probably just noise outside of Powell Wednesday.

Thursday – Jobless Claims, 1 Fed Speaker

Friday – 1 Fed Speaker.

Trading Observations

Needless to say, but headline risk remains rampant.
"Japan negotiations big progress" lifted futures, but do think we at the point of needing to see a deal soon since we haven't had any or it becomes a boy who cried wolf scenario
Then this morning, "Powell needs to go" after being hawkish yday put a damper on things
Earnings really come to the fore next week, while TSM numbers solid with good guidance should give semis some relief today, but we see
Bonds close mid-day
Couple of positive despite the selloff: Only a 70% down volume day, and bonds acted as they should and not under duress
Bounced off 5220 for 2nd time in a week so significant, a break opens the door to 5100 and potentially 4850
5500 resistance grows more meaningful by the day
AAII Bears >50% for 8th week, a feat not even achieved during dot-com on GFC https://tinyurl.com/yrkh6tpr [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -535 (Due to UNH)

S&P +18

Nasdaq +109

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

ICE Brent Crude

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

UNH – Down 20% and hurting the Dow Jones Average after announcing a surprise jump in care for cost. HUM did this same thing a few quarters ago. EPS down to $26.25 for this year from a previous number near $30.

BX – +2% - Earnings not exciting. Fundraising numbers were +$61B in the Q ahead of $48B street. Private Equity and Credit and Insurance are the winners.

GPN, WorldPay – GPN is down 8% after announcing it will pay $24B from WorldPay, owned 45% by FIS and 55% P/E firm GTCR. FIS bought Worldpay in 2019 for $41B and sold half of it to GTCR for $18.5B in 2022. Puke complete.

SCHW - +4% as volatility leads to a trading beat. They punted on FY guidance until July.

PYPL – Downgraded at Seaport on macro uncertainty.

PGR – But to market perform at KBW, BAC and NDAQ upgraded elsewhere.

AXP – Flat – Reiterated guidance, but subject to macro. FY revenue expevted +9% y/y sounds god to me.

CMG – Baird stays outperform but the quarter preview reads largely negative.

Regional Banks – Baird likes CFG at 1.1x TBV and FHN neat 1.3x.

Restaurants – Positive data +6% in March after Q1 was down 1.5%.

LLY weight loss pill succeeds in first late stage trial on diabetes patients https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/17/eli-lilly-weight-loss-pill-orforglipron-clears-first-late-stage-trial.html?taid=6800ddd258881b0001072b07&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter [cnbc.com]

Technology

AMZN/META: contd weakness .... two biggest Internet decliners ystrdy - dynamic at play here is 1) Both are exposed to China/Tariffs/Ads - 3 areas where investors do not want to be exposed to on the long side right now; co. specific reasons: META — FTC trial, weakening ad environment. Temu stopping spend…AMZN — weak cloud checks, tariff/consumer exposure, etc

DeepSeek (from Wed): Washington is weighing blocking DeepSeek from buying US tech, and potentially barring Americans from accessing its services. The House Committee report described DeepSeek as 'profound' national security threat, called on Nvidia to release more information on chip supply

NVDA CEO in Beijing today https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-arrived-beijing-thursday-chinese-state-media-reports-2025-04-17/ [reuters.com]

NVDA/AMD: UBS cutting ests/PT ... (1)NVDA: cut ests to reflect the newly issued licensing requirements for the co's H20 graphics processing units. Only about half of the $5.5B in reserves is associated with inventory, with the remainder related to purchase commitments ... (2)AMD: stripped out $400M from its data center graphics processing unit revenue forecast in Q2 for AMD

TSMC: +2.6% upside on Q1 EPS (GMs ahead). Guide strong - sees sales of $28.8B at the mid-point (vs St $27.1B) with margins inline. FY guide unch for sales/capex - “We understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies. However, we have not seen any change in our customers behavior so far” .... China drops from 9% of sales to 7% QoQ while North America increases from 75% to 77%. TSMC capex: Capex in Q125 was $10.06bn down from $11.23bn in

The Information reported PINS considered spending hundreds of millions on an acquisition to boost its ad sales.