Morning Note

Trading Observations

• More to digest today, though PCE tomorrow and jobs Fri more potentially market moving

• Senate apparently having votes to stop tariffs, but will House go along?

• Auto tariffs reportedly getting some relief, should get clarification later

• JOLTS after the open

• Earnings start to really ramp with UPS higher and NXPI lower

• Big picture, it was an encouraging day for the bulls, weak early after the runup last week with buyers stepping in (admittedly SPY lightest volume since 3/27)

• 5500 first support with 5375 support below vs. 5575/5625 levels to watch with 5750 the BIG level should we rally

Futures

DOW +34

S&P -23

Nasdaq -115

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

PYPL – Up 2% - No 2025 guidance. In general, it was all fine but not great. Stock is cheap.

SOFI – Up 7% - Upped FY guidance to $3.3B from $3.2B estimate. Profit margins were strong as well, with margin guidance in-line. Share taking bank continues to do so.

UPST – Up 5% on an upgrade to neutral at BAC.

SPGI – Up 4% on cut guidance, mostly thanks to the announcement they will spin off their automotive group to unlock the sum of the parts.

Consumer Misses – PII (Polaris), MO (Phillip Morris), SYY (Sysco, the restaurant food delivery kind),

Consumer Beats - EAT (Maggiano’s, Chillis), KO

PFE – Pfizer beat on cost cuts, but uneven product revenue growth has the stock flat. They need growth and have a $10-$15B bazooka to do it.

AMZN to display tariff related costs to its consumers, pushing into their suppliers to take a hit heavily.

WMT,TGT – To resume certain exports from China to avoid shortages.

FI – Baird puts Fiserv into its “Bullish Fresh Pick” category. The 18% pullback on earnings seems too much.

Tax Refunds - +3% y/y.

RCL shares rise 4.1% after the cruise operator boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.

HIMS / NVO - Shares of online pharmacy Hims & Hers surged after it struck a deal with Danish obesity drug maker Novo Nordisk to sell its Wegovy drug in the U.S.

Technology

AMZN - *AMAZON PLAN TO SHOW TARIFF COSTS A 'HOSTILE' ACT, LEAVITT SAYS - Amazon shares slip premarket as the company’s plans to show customers the added cost from tariffs inspires ire from the White House

AAPL: #s Thur night / 4.2% implied move ... positioning 4 out of 10 .. bogeys: Q2 revs $95-96B vs St at $94B; Q3 revs inline; Q3 GM 45.5% vs St at 46.7%

AMKR shares are up 1.9% after the semiconductor manufacturing company gave a stronger-than-expected sales forecast for the second quarter.

Amazon launches first Kuiper internet satellites in bid to take on Elon Musk's Starlink – CNBC

ANET shares are up 2.4% after Rosenblatt Securities upgraded the cloud networking company to neutral from sell.

CART: #s Thur evening; bogeys have seen: Q1 GTV growth & EBITDA above the top end of guide (10%+ and $230m+ resp); Q2 guide for GTV growth +8-9% high-end, and EBITDA ~$235m high-end.

FFIV: strong upside on Q1 EPS/rev; raising guide thanks to product innovations and solid execution (now see sales +6.5-7.5% vs prior +6-7% w/ EPS up 8-10% vs prior 6.5-8.5%).

IBM: plans to invest $150B in the US over the next 5 yrs. The planned investment includes > $30B for R&D of IBM’s mainframes and quantum computers . The announcement follows similar pledges by tech cos such as Nvidia and Apple, both of which have said they would spend ~$500B each in US over the next 4 yrs

NXPI: -8.5% Q1 EPS slight beat, sales inline. GMs below expectations. Upside was driven by Mobile/Comms, while Auto and Industrial & IoT missed expectations ... CEO stepping down end of yr - negative surprise

OKTA: +5% Okta to replace Berry Global in S&P 400 at open on 5/1

RMBS shares are up 2.5% after the semiconductor device company reported first-quarter results and gave an outlook. While analysts are broadly positive, they noted the uncertain economic backdrop.

WOLF shares rise 17% as the chipmaker is set for its sixth session of straight gains to match February’s winning streak.

SPOT shares are down 5.3% after the audio-streaming company gave a second-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected on key measures. However, analysts remain positive on the company’s prospects.

TER: +2.8% solid upside in Q1 EPS (75c vs. the Street 62c) and sales were a bit better ($685M vs St $681M), while Q2 EPS/rev guide mid-pts are essentially right inline w/the Street.

SNAP: #s tonight / 19% implied move .. favored short for years (-18% YTD); some expect a beat to the Q1 guide but downside to Q2. Struggle to see how this print changes narrative meaningfully in any direction ... Bogeys: Q1 rvs $1.36B (inline w/ St); Q2 rev growth 10-11% (St at 12%)

Industrials 

Amcor (AMCR) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) downgraded to hold from buy at Stifel

General Motors (GM) – Q1 beats, no FY guidance update given tariff chaos, stock trading down 2.7% - GM suspending guidance and freezing share buybacks on Trump Tariff uncertainty

Saia Inc (SAIA) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Stephens

United Parcel Service (UPS) – Q1 beats, FY outlook not being updated given macro-economic uncertainty, stock trading up 2.5%

WM shares fall 1.7% after the firm’s first-quarter update missed revenue expectations and free cash flow dropped, with analysts saying that investors were hoping for more in order to support the stock’s 14% year-to-date rally.

Latest Media

Wall Street's Top Indicators Are Sending Mixed Signals.

Recession or Resilience?

Interesting Tweets

Think this is right

All despite being extremely overbought

Some chop expected, but bulls have the ball

Buybacks resume in earnest next week