Market Snapshot

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

  • Little incremental

  • Tariff man will dominate again today... ideally rather than just the stick, we see a carrot with either India or EU positive framework to suggest some actual progress

  • Treasury Secretary Bessent says US has collected $100B in tariffs this year, potentially reaching $300B by end of 2025 – Reuters

  • 10-yr auction mid-day will be watched, FOMC minutes could provide a headline or two

  • MRK/VRNA deal in healthcare land

  • 6275 resistance vs. 6175/6100 support

  • Oscillators still very short-term overbought

  • II BULLS tick up slightly to 53.8% from 51% (still well below 60% headwind and moderating after the BIG jump last week)

  • 4 years of... NOTHING:

  • Russell 2000’s close on 7/8/21 = 2,231.7

  • Russell 2000’s close on 7/8/25 = 2,228.7

  • Though IWM finally showing some signs of life? https://tinyurl.com/ybyct3hv [tinyurl.com]

  • Embrace new highs https://tinyurl.com/dvapdbt3 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +151

S&P +16

Nasdaq +53

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

JPM – Upgraded to outperform at KBW. Seems very late given the 41% return over the past year. Dimon is out saying they plan increased investment in Germany.

WYNN – Down 1% on a Citi downgrade as they think market share in Macau is headed to competitors.

Baird Bank Preview – They expect in-line results and warn “don’t chase”.

May RV Retail down 6%, YTD down 5%. Honestly sounds better than expected.

SBUX – Up 3% on news SBUX China controlling stake has drawn interest.

PVH – Down 2% on a TD Cowen downgrade.

SBUX reportedly receiving inquiries for a controlling stake in its China unit.  

Technology

AAPL: MS says COO retirement marks continued changing of guard

AAPL / Streaming: is in talks to buy the US broadcast rights for Formula 1 as it looks to capitalize on the success of its new Brad Pitt movie (FT)

AAPL – Navarro thinks AAPL is too big to Tarriff

AEHR: -20% Q4 revs miss; cautious commentary ... “We continue to experience some timing-related delays in order placements due to tariff-related uncertainty, particularly in our first quarter”

AMZN: Amazon’s Bezos sells $665.9 Million of shrs ... Amazon's Project Kuiper targets South Korea in global satellite push

China AI/Nvidia: Chinese firms plan to install over 115K Nvidia AI chips in data centers across western deserts (Bloomberg)

INTC/GFS squeeze: some pointing to 232 tariffs headlines

MBLY: -1% Intel will sell 45M shares of MBLY (Mobileye will repurchase another $100M of stock from Intel), and MBLY said Q2 results will come in ahead of expectations (they see sales/op. income of $504M/$101M vs St $465M/$71M)

META: Threads has nearly as many mobile DAUs as X/Twitter (Tech Crunch)

MSFT +1% on $33mm notional .... >$500 level in pre for 1st time ... Fresh highs post Opco upgrade. Bulls in charge since T+1 pop fueled by Azure acceleration w/ some bulls seeing +40% ..

SMCI: Super Micro plans to boost its investment in Europe, focusing on increasing AI server manufacturing in the region (CNBC) ... BofA reit negative view with Underweight

TMUS: -2% KeyB downgrade citing prem. Valuation

TTWO: MSci positive - Recurrent consumer spend across mobile and PC/console a highlight driving broad based outperformance. material reacceleration in NBA 2K bookings exiting the quarter

Industrials 

Ukraine’s air force says that Russia has fired a record 728 Shahed and decoy drones at Ukraine overnight as well as 13 missiles – Wash Post

Ball Corp (BALL) downgraded to neutral at BofA

Bloom Energy (BE) upgraded to overweight at JP Morgan

Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to buy at Melius Research

Enphase Energy (ENPH) downgraded to sell at Goldam Sachs

Greif (GEF) downgraded to neutral at BofA

Norfolk Southern (NSC) downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi

O-I Glass (OI) downgraded to neutral at BofA

Silgan (SLGN) downgraded to neutral at BofA

SolarEdge (SEDG) downgraded to neutral at Goldman Sachs

Sunrun (RUN) upgraded to hold at Jefferies

XPO, Inc. (XPO) downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi

Latest Media

$PLTR and early 2000s $CSCO look very similar.

$PLTR trading 4-5x the valuation of peak $CSCO.