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Market Snapshot

Morning Note
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Trading Observations
Triple Witch – could lead to outsized moves esp with light volumes with the NCAA tourney
Negative macro/consumer reads: FDX-10%, NKE-7%, LEN-4.2%
MU – Reversed as gross margins were 37.9% vs 38.4%. Could weigh a bit on the SMH
Continued lack of follow through frustrating for the bulls.
Bonds behaving after the Fed, but caution remains
5665, 5740, 5850 resistance vs. 5560/5400 support
Updated numbers via GS on CTA projections. Upside is the main convexity risk, and it has grown. Threshold levels are: st 5870, mt 5865, lt 5434
Futures
DOW -163
S&P -22
Nasdaq -101
Charts/Sentiment
CNN Fear/Greed Index![]() | U.S. 10 Year Treasury![]() |
ICE Brent Crude![]() | Bitcoin![]() |
Financials / Retail / Healthcare
NKE – Down 7% - Tariffs are to blame for Wall Street EPS estimate drops. Nike brand revenues (most of their revenue) was down 9% in Q3, and “lifestyle shoes” were down double digits as people pull back from that third pair of properly colored Nikes.
LEN – Down 5%, all homebuilders down in sympathy - Nothing looks terrible for this homebuilder as I read it. The valuation is crazy low but there are some big adjustments in the EPS. Backlog of home builds at 13k are down 19% y/y.
LPLA – LPL Net New Assets up $23.8B in February, beating peers. A deal with PRU is helping, but they are growing organically at a solid pace.
FDX/macro read: shrs FedEx -7%, cuts profit outlook on mounting econ woes
AZO – Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at D.A. Davidson
Technology
Magnificent Seven, Elon Musk sought to reassure Tesla employees that despite “rocky moments,” they should “hang onto” their stock.
Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.2%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.03%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.2%, Nvidia -0.6% and Tesla (TSLA) +0.3%
MU: -3.6% decent reversal off post mkt highs, back towards $100 having failed @ $110 last night .... Q2 mostly inline, but strong Q3 top line - $8.8B well above bogeys of $8-$8.3B. HBM shipments ahead of plans as they ramp faster, +50% q/q .... Revised up 2025 DRAM demand from “mid teens%” to “mid-to-high teens %.” .. GMs to be up somewhat. MS see this as a compelling AI story especially given very strong recent execution, and a somewhat less compelling commodity memory story .... no capex guide
Gross margins were 37.9% in the second quarter on an adjusted basis, the company said in a statement Thursday. That missed the average 38.4% analyst estimate
MU / PC, smartphones: Micron still sees PC unit growth of ~5% this calendar year (“The Windows 10 end-of-life in October 2025, combined with an aging installed base and a desire amongst customers to ensure that their PC hardware specs can support compelling AI applications in the future, are key catalysts that drive this growth”)
SMCI: JPM upgrade from UW to Neutral - "company has cycled past the uncertainty in relation to pending SEC filings and is on the cusp of benefitting from the ramp in Blackwell based server shipments. However, while the firm is raising forecasts for revs in next 12 months given positive datapoints in recent weeks relative to a better supply ramp from Nvidia, it balances the upcoming strong rev progression with potential concerns around margin trajectory in an increasingly competitive landscape that it sees driving aggressive pricing and GM pressures"
Industrials
TSLA: -5.5% WTD .. on track for its 11th weekly decline out of 12 ... Musk held an all-hands meeting to reassure Tesla employees during a difficult period, saying "hang on to your stock" and promising a bright future
TSLA: MS cut PT to $410 but still bullish on evolving transition from an automotive "pure play" to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics
TSLA WH sales pitch contd: “If you want to learn something on the show tonight, it’s ‘Buy Tesla. It’s unbelievable that this guy’s stock is so cheap. It’ll never be so cheap again.” .. Lutnick’s pitch to Buy Tesla
NIO - ADRs slip 4% after the Chinese electric vehicle maker now expects to deliver only as many as 43,000 cars in the three months that will end March 31; that’s short of the around 65,000 units the market was looking for.
LMT inches 2% higher after Bloomberg reported the White House is poised to announce on Friday the winner of its contest to build the next-generation fighter jet, choosing between the aerospace giant and peer Boeing.