Trading Observations

• Futures lower, but only by 0.3% as Europe talk of retaliatory tariffs morphs again

• The market is getting used to tariff narrative

• 10-year yields higher and above the 50-day

• Dollar and Gold lower having rallied earlier

• 6100 resistance vs. 5960 support, churning above 6000 seems a good place

• Technically some work to do for the market https://tinyurl.com/bdfm4yks [tinyurl.com]

• Despite the tariff worries, it's been 2 months since the VIX was above 20 https://tinyurl.com/2j59rzdu [tinyurl.com]

• Inflows last week mostly large cap https://tinyurl.com/3dn273su [tinyurl.com]

• META still a champ https://tinyurl.com/yc8z5wzf [tinyurl.com]

• Plenty of earnings along with Powell testimony today, but nothing new expected

Upgrades – BRX, COMP, FSLR, MNDY, STLD, SMCI

Downgrades – NET, CMCO, DVAX, FXNC, PLYA, QTTB, RGNX, SDRL, SNAP, TTGT

Futures

DOW -166

S&P -27

Nasdaq -152

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

SLQT – Up 28% - MS and Bain have made a strategic investment in the firm.

FIS – Down 10.5% - 1% miss on revenues, EBITDA in line. Bank recurring revenue growth was only 1% vs 4% expected. Capital markets didn’t save the day either.

CG – Carlyle missed on lower FRE and higher expenses. Earnings for the Private Equity players have not been great. Fund raising remains strong.

CMA – Baird PT raise to $80 on better long-term earnings power.

VNO – Strong EPS beat for this largely NYC office player. Leasing volumes in SF and NYC were down 31% y/y, but up 28% Q/Q. Leasing spreads were strong. NYC occupancy was 88.8%, up from 87.5% last Q.

SCHW- Announced yesterday that TD will sell its equity stake in Schwab, which is ~10% of total market cap. Schwab themselves will buy about 10% of the deal.

Superbowl viewership hits a fresh record of 126M people, w/~111.5M consuming the game on terrestrial TV and the balance via streaming – WSJ

MGM said Super Bowl LIX was the single biggest betting event in the history of the online sports betting operator.

Flu cases are surging across the nation, overwhelming certain hospitals and causing some schools to close – Wash Post

Egg prices – supermarket chains such as Costco and Trader Joe’s are starting to limit how many eggs people can buy as prices continue to climb – Biz Insider

KO rises 3% after profit beat Wall Street expectations as shoppers paid higher prices for the company’s sodas, energy drinks and juices.

MTCH CEO purchased $2M in shares.  [streetaccount.com]

Technology

Musk-led consortium offers to buy OpenAI for $97.4bn valn, keeping it open source and not-for-profit, starting a war of words on X between the two former friends/colleagues; NB: last week SoftBank was talking about investing $15-25bn at valn c.$250bn+... This move has personal, rather than business, motivations. Musk standing on his wallet looking down on everyone (Panmure/Mark Taylor)

ACLS: -7% solid upside in Q4, but the guide was disappointing for Q1 as mgmt. calls out near-term digestion as customers absorb recent investments

ALAB: -4.5% below buyside expectations / margins fell short - Gross margin is expected to moderate around 74% in 1H25, likely falling toward the low 70s as the hardware-product mix increases in 2025 and beyond .. EPS/revs for qrtr above; guide overall fine. Not much air cover given valuation

ARM: saw small shorts Monday; contd overhang Masa may have to sell some shrs here

GFS drops 7% premarket after the the semiconductor manufacturing company provided a 1Q revenue forecast that was shy of estimates.

LSCC: +13% Q4 results inline on sales and GMs (GMs were 68.1% ex-items, consistent w/guidance), and the guidance is a relief while mgmt. makes positive qualitative comments on the environment (“We are starting to see signs of improvement in the broader market environment as evidenced by our stronger backlog and improved book to bill”);

Lyft to launch robotaxi rides powered by Mobileye technology in Dallas in 2026 – Bloomey

NVDA shares have spiked nearly 20% since their post-DeepSeek lows on 2/3, spurred higher by huge capex budget announcements from the hyperscalers along with expectations for bullish FQ4 numbers (on 2/26) and an upbeat GTC conf. in March (GTC runs Mar 17-21).

SHOP: -6.5% hit out of gates; key KPIs below buyside. Stock @ 52k wk highs into print .... Sees Q1 revenue up at mid-20s percentage rate on y/y basis; GAAP operating expense guide of 41% to 42%, street was looking for 41%, so relatively in line but buyside may have wanted to see more leverage implied by guide

SMCI: -5% biz update tonight @ 5pm ET ... vicious squeeze seen Monday. SMCI: CFRA upgraded - says the co's near-term margin recovery to mid-teens and market share gains appear likely given its "proven rapid development capabilities and expanding product portfolio." SMCI's "dominant" position in liquid cooling and advantage with Nvidia's Blackwell B200 rack solutions showcases its AI infrastructure leadership

SNAP: Gugg downgrade - need to invest more to be competitive drives further pressure on profitability

UBER: contd shift in investor sentiment (shrs have still lagged Tesla by 75% since Oct 11) ... tough to ignore impressive px action as Co has been shaking off bad news around AV and next month we finally get some good news as they will be launching with Waymo in Austin (followed by Atlanta in the summer) .... AV rollouts will increasingly need a demand side platform and with UBER being the biggest, they are positioned well

Industrials 

PSX rises 5% as Elliott Investment Management has built a more than $2.5 billion stake in the oil refiner.