Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
March 10, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Bulls managed to save the 200-day (5733) Fri, looks like will have to do it again
Intraday low of 5666 must hold vs. 5850 first resistance
An oversold market that can't rally is very concerning, especially with sentiment as bad as it is
Trump over the weekend again saying his goal is lower rates, Trump put lower than market thinks?
Per Trump: “There could be a little disruption. You can't really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective… we go by quarters. What we’re doing is building a foundation for the future.” https://tinyurl.com/29ekncd2 [tinyurl.com]
Powell speaks Wed, and while people still worry over inflation, data suggests otherwise and Fed may be cutting sooner than they think https://tinyurl.com/mwrz9tzy [tinyurl.com]
Employment avg hours breaking down https://tinyurl.com/mr25r8xw [tinyurl.com]
Valuation updates: Nazz down to 26x while Mids 15x https://tinyurl.com/375mnay6 [tinyurl.com]
Next 2 weeks key for QQQ? Close below 200-day and historical moves diverge meaningfully base on next two weeks https://tinyurl.com/yc35wwer [tinyurl.com]
Not a surprise, but money flowing from US to Intl https://tinyurl.com/4yyrcz2z [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -457

S&P -76

Nasdaq -310

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

ICE Brent Crude

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

Bitcoin Related – HOOD down 7%, COIN down 5%, the rest are all down 3-4%.

RKT – Down 15% on announcement they will buy RDFN for $1.75B. RDFN has never made money as a public company, which is why the market is punishing RKT.

FI – Cramer calls it “One of the Greatest FinTech’s”.

Alternative Asset Managers – Down 14% YTD, down 26% off recent peaks as GS calls the multiples “formerly frothy” and now down to 21x as a group. They see 15% EPS risk in 2025/2026 on capital markets slowness.

WMT - is the subject of a positive profile article in the WSJ, with a focus on its Spark delivery system and massive grocery footprint, both of which are allowing the firm to challenge Amazon’s dominance – WSJ

Technology

Trump says four groups interested in TikTok deal – Bloomey

S&P changes: DASH +7%, TKO +3% ... versus ... APP -4%. APP: drawdown reaches 52% incl pre mkt decline post S&P snub

AAPL: Citi removed the firm's "90-day positive catalyst watch" on shares; cites a delay in the "much-anticipated" Siri upgrade as part of the iOS 18.4 update in April for the removal

ABNB: +1.8% Jefferies upgrading - citing durable growth and new products; says “lodging share gains will be augmented by increased adoption of experiences, an opportunity ABNB is uniquely well positioned to capture”

MSFT: has made significant progress on its own internal AI technology and is testing models from Anthropic, xAI, Meta, and DeepSeek as the firm continues to separate from OpenAI (The Information)

NVDA: GTA week out .. Jensen speaking next Tues, 3/18 @ 1pm ET

ORCL: #s tonight | 9% implied move

NOW - is planning a major expansion in West Palm Beach and could eventually move its headquarters there – Bloomey

• The company is nearing its largest acquisition yet w $3B deal for AI assistant maker Moveworks

Semi Sales: TSMC reported robust sales growth in the first two mos of the year w/ Jan and Feb rev +39% Y/Y in aggregate (the consensus is modeling 41% Y/Y growth for Q1 overall)

Industrials

Ford to inject up to $4.76B into German business – FT

BA - CEO Kelly Ortberg received $18.4M in total compensation for the five months he spent on the job in 2024 — although he won’t be able to cash in on much of the award for years, the company said in a filing Friday. The company must face a class of investors certified Friday to sue over allegations that Boeing defrauded shareholders about aircraft safety and the company’s safety procedures.

BECN: QXO, Inc. and Beacon confirmed today that they are in discussions about a potential combination in which QXO would acquire Beacon for $124.35 per share in cash, or total consideration of ~$11B. BECN is postponing its Investor Day, which had been scheduled for 13-Mar-25.

Emerson Electric (EMR) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $110

Fastenal (FAST) Raised to Outperform at William Blair

Knight-Swift (KNX) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $53

NOVA chairman and CEO William Berger to step down

nVent Electric (NVT) to acquire electrical products group business of Avail Infrastructure Solutions for $975M

PPG Industries (PPG) downgraded to hold from buy at Argus Research

Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $380

Silgan (SLGN) exploring sale of custom containers business.

WW Grainger (GWW) Raised to Outperform at William Blair

XPeng (XPEV) ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $29