Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
July 01, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

The march into the long weekend continues
Tax bill progressing though going thru the process, with July 4th deadline still a possibility but we'll see
Bond market not raising any red flags https://tinyurl.com/42rmkb8h [tinyurl.com]
Powell speaks today most notable, though not much expected
If he is more dovish, a tailwind and shows he is capitulating to White House pressure?
6147 support vs. 6240 first resistance
Markets short-term overbought so could see some chop, but bias still to the upside
M2 suggests higher prices coming https://tinyurl.com/2yc45xr6 [tinyurl.com]
Positioning STILL underweight https://tinyurl.com/2dpbsypb [tinyurl.com]
Notable small caps had largest outflow of the year last week and still rallied https://tinyurl.com/hhh4he4v [tinyurl.com]
Hard to think market struggles with fins doing well https://tinyurl.com/4yh9jkmu [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -40

S&P -18

Nasdaq -92

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

LVS, WYNN – Up 5% on blowout monthly Macau numbers.

COST new perk - Executive members now gain exclusive early morning access to warehouses across the US https://tinyurl.com/54f5bz4p [tinyurl.com]

GS on Rates- Out yesterday, they pushed their December first rate cut to September. It felt like Powell and Co had fed them something, but we will see when he speaks today.

JPM SMID Bank Preview – Strong performance in Q2, but they remain cautious with no tariff resolution. Their synopsis is good loan growth, slightly better NIM, no credit issues, no surprises. On the large cap side, they like BAC and WFC.

H- Hyatt announced a $2B sale of its new Playa portfolio that should eliminate some risk of the transaction. Baird wondering why shares didn’t do better given the announcement. They like the name to re-rate higher eventually on this.

G – Genpact – Baird earnings preview very positive as they like a beat and raise into a 12x P/E.

KBH – The homebuilder cut to sell at CFRA.

Beta Financials – Bitcoin related all down 2-4%. BULL up 3% as the Reddit crowd may have picked it up.

SG – Down 3% on Cowen downgrade, weaker SSS outlook. I went to one at lunch the other day, and deadsville.

Technology

AAPL: +20bps early alpha leader post late day squeeze/rally seen Monday on AI related headlines. Guess positive when at least admit you have a problem .... considering using AI technology from Anthropic or OpenAI to power a new version of Siri, sidelining its own in-house models in a potentially blockbuster move aimed at turning around its flailing AI effort

AMD: Cathie Wood's ARK Investment buys 356K shares ... kiss of death?

AMZN: will soon have more robots working in its retail distribution facilities than humans as the firm pursues an aggressive automation strategy (WSJ)

CRCL: +2% applies for a national bank charter

GOOGL/OAI: OpenAI denies it is currently planning to use Google AI chips (Reuters)

HOOD: +3% in pre; up 7 out of 8 weeks to end qrtr (few bullish sell side notes - Mizuho/KeyB). Bulls believe Robinhood should be re-rated as new products merit a bigger premium vs. peers; these announcements, along with others from the event, not only reinforce first-rate innovation, but TAM expansion for Co ... Robinhood is making tokenized US securities available to 150k customers in 30 countries, 24 hours a day, 5 days a week

MSFT - Microsoft has built an artificial intelligence-powered medical tool it claims is four times more successful than human doctors at diagnosing complex ailments, as the tech giant unveils research it believes could speed up treatment.⁠ - FT

SNAP: +2.9% early alpha leader as WFC lifts PT to $11 (from $8) - sees positive tactical setup into earnings on conservative Street expectations and potential tailwind from messaging monetization

SNOW/NET: removed from US Conviction List at Goldman

Industrials

AVAV – filed automatic mixed shelf of indeterminate amount - S-3ASR

Carrier Global (CARR) Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $90

Cintas (CTAS) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $221

C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $112

CleanSpark (CLSK) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $16

KB Home (KBH) Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $49

MasTec (MTZ) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $210

MSM – Q3 beats, Q4 Operating Margin and ADS guidance looks good, stock bid up 4% – reported Q3 of $971M and $1.08 (cons $970M/$1.03) – sees Q4 ADS growth (0.5%)-1.5%, compared to cons of (0.5%) and sees Q4 Operating Margin 8.5%-9%, compared to cons of 8.4%.

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) announces agreement to purchase Greif (GEF) containerboard business for $1.8B in cash.

Oshkosh (OSK) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $131

Ryder (R) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $183

Textron (TXT) downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs.

TSLA trading down (5%) after President Donald Trump lashed out at Elon Musk, accusing the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive officer of benefiting excessively from government subsidies for electric vehicles.