Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
October 08, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Earnings don’t get started until next week, so this week is all Fed speakers with Powell on Thursday.

Wednesday – FOMC Minutes, 5 more Fed Speakers

Thursday – Powell Speaks at 8:30am Est. Initial jobless claims out too.

Friday – Goolsbee speaks (more hawkish).

Trading Observations

Yday a bit of a wobble on ORCL margin worries on cloud, yet overnight we get xAI raise with NVDA investing
Bubble talk everywhere, but is it? And if so, what inning? Still room in my view
Bounced off 6700 (first support) with 6625 and 6550 below vs. 6750 resistance
II BULLS up to 57.7% from 53.7% (over 60% headwind)
For the bulls https://tinyurl.com/44u2a8s4 [tinyurl.com]
Net shorts remain high https://tinyurl.com/3t8n7xf4 [tinyurl.com]
Finally biotech time? https://tinyurl.com/5n855fh2 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +119

S&P +8

Nasdaq +20

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

JPM surveyed 2000+ on Buy Now Pay Later to try to understand usage and winners/losers. PYPL (RVET name) remains dominant. Klarna positive inflection, but results more mixed than they were likely hoping for given the outperform rating.

SRPT – RBC put a $16 PT on it with a neutral rating (stock is $23 guys, step up and downgrade).

BULL – Down 6% on a large block trade.

Baird pumping EFX following the FICO pricing strategy change.

Baird Bank Preview – They think core PPNR will be fine, but expectations for the mega-caps are very high, making regionals a better play into earnings. Loan growth, NIM trends all solid.

RV Survey Work has retail sales down 5% y/y. Likely in-line with meh expectations.

Baird defending Senior Housing as a solid asset class as expense overruns due to labor likely to abate from here.

JPM – To spend $470MM to revamp one of its UK sites with world class payments and AI infrastructure.

LNTH declines 1.7% in premarket trading following a downgrade to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs, which sees less certainty regarding the medical equipment company’s outlook.

Technology

AMZN – Initiated Outperform at Mizuho

NVDA reportedly to invest $2B of equity in xAI as part of $20B fund raise.

ORCL facing gross margin pressures from renting out Nvidia chips – The Information (yesterday)

AI-related companies are increasingly turning to credit markets to fund AI costs – The Information

INTC: downgraded at HSBC - "believes further deal announcements could drive the stock higher in the short term, but says Intel's own fab execution remains key to any sustainable turnaround" .... will release technical details about its new laptop chip, Panther, on Thursday (Reuters)

Intel planning to release technical details about high-end Panther Lake chip for laptops, chip release planned for early 2026 – Reuters

MBLY (RVER holding) Interesting trading idea given a high near-term fundamental floor - Baird

Industrials

Shares of US-listed precious metals miners (NEM +2%, EQX +3.1%, CDE +3%) rally in premarket trading, after spot gold rallied past $4,000 an ounce for the first time amid concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown.

AI power demand to grow tenfold by 2030, new report says – Bloomey yesterday…

TSLA: unveiled slightly cheaper versions of its Model 3 (starts at $36,9K) and Model Y (starts at $39.9K) on Tues as the firm looks to bolster sales, although the discounted prices don’t fully cover the loss of the $7.5K federal tax credit (and the vehicles are lacking many of the features of the full-priced models)

JOBY: -10% Joby Aviation Offering Prices at $16.85/Share

ABB Limited (ABB) agrees to divest its Robotics division to SoftBank Group for an enterprise value of $5.375B

ArcBest (ARCB) upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi

C.H. Robinson (CHRW) downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi

FedEx (FDX) downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; $274 PT

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) downgraded to neutral from buy at B Riley Securities; $105 PT

MSC Industrial (MSM) downgraded to peer perform from outperform at Wolfe Research

Northrop Grumman (NOC) upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank; $700 PT

Otis Worldwide (OTIS) upgraded to outperform from peer perform at Wolfe Research; $109 PT

Plug Power (PLUG) downgraded to hold from buy at Clear Street

QuantumScape (QS) trading up 6% after announcing a development agreement with Murata

Southern Copper (SCCO) upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley

Symbotic (SYM) initiated underweight at Barclays; $38 PT

Teck Resources (TECK) downgraded to sector perform from outperform at National Bank Financial

TopBuild (BLD) acquires Specialty Products and Insulation (SPI) in all-cash transaction valued at $1B

Werner Enterprises (WERN) downgraded to hold from buy at TD Cowen