Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
May 28, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

Wednesday – NVDA Earnings, HPQ and CRM too, More Kashkari in Kapan, Richmond Fed, FOMC Minutes

Thursday – Jobless Claims (this matters if they tick up), Home Sales, 5 Fed Speakers, BBY, DELL, COST, ULTA, NTAP earnings

Friday – Core PCE (Fed watches this one)

Trading Observations

Encouraging, no giveback after a +2% up day with 85% up volume
FOMC minutes: Do we move if any hint of a cut coming?
NVDA post close the focus, hopefully strong enough to carry AI and Data Center names
CLOSED above 5900 resistance so 6000 now the big hurdle vs. 5900 and 5845 first support levels with 5767 more significant
Few things of note: II BULLS dropped to 41.5% from 42.3% despite the continued rally
People still not believing tech https://tinyurl.com/mryc9wd8 [tinyurl.com]
And positioning overall still light https://tinyurl.com/3z97ds2y [tinyurl.com]
Month-end could be a headwind https://tinyurl.com/yyx9u97r [tinyurl.com]
Haven't seen many talk about it, but money supply to new highs https://tinyurl.com/5h7mnrtz [tinyurl.com]
Flows short-term supportive https://tinyurl.com/42r5v7xf [tinyurl.com]
While job openings fall https://tinyurl.com/y2wv2usx [tinyurl.com]
Payrolls show no signs of slowing https://tinyurl.com/ksrru4vf [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +7

S&P +6

Nasdaq +55

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

FMCC, FNMA- Up another 15-18% on tweets they will keep their government guarantee, yet “go public” (they are already public).

Stocks now using their balance sheet to buy Bitcoin – MSTR, GME, DJT

CODI – Down another 12% on entering a forbearance agreement with lenders. This means the debt holders want a hold back because they are worried the accounting issues are a real problem.

FICO – Upgraded to outperform at Baird. Regulatory pullback should create favorable growth.

ANF – Huge squeeze higher, +27% as comps were solid at +3-+6%, and op margin wasn’t as bad as feared. 6MM shares short scrambling

M – Macys up 3% on squeeze, slower than anticipated demise.

BSX – Down 2% on discontinuing sales of Accurate.

Technology

AAPL: one in a row ... shrs snapped 8-day losing streak; focus should start to shift to WWDC although nothing earth shattering expected at this point

AAPL (hit Tuesday): to launch a standalone, dedicated gaming app as the firm looks to become a greater presence in the industry (and enhance the experience of playing games on Apple devices)

AMD: cont to see dip buyers, 100D healthy support - gains in PC CPU expected to continue, Gaming share approaching 20% on NVDA shortages; winner from tariff de-escalation -- still think grinds higher into AI Advancing Day on 6/12

BOX: +11% healthy boost .... solid EPS upside for FQ1; billings and RPO both saw healthy growth at ~17% FXN each and FY sales growth guide is tweaked higher (now +7% vs. the prior +6%), although rev/oper margins were both inline and oper margin guidance for the year is unch

CRM: #s tonight / 7% implied move ... most expecting inline Q / checks positive from our team; have heard more mixed overall. M&A again creeping back into story w/ INFA (historically signals have gone ex-growth) - not making ppl feel great about the story CRM Bogeys: hearing Q1 Rev $9.7B; Q1 cRPO growth 10.6% cc (sellside at 9.9%); Q2 Revenue Guide $10.04B; Q2 cRPO growth guide 9-10% (sellside at 9.2%); FY26 Rev growth

CRWV: +19% Tues cant be contained; spot borrow rates hit 275% Tues morning I heard .. the widow maker continues to live up to its name

CRYPTO FRENZY/GAMESTOP: what else would a struggling brick+mortar Co do - GAMESTOP PURCHASED 4,710 BITCOIN ... Has been speculated as one of drivers here; @ $105,000 coin = ~$495,000,000

GOOGL continues its dominance of the TV industry according to fresh Nielsen data – Tech Crunch

MBLY - a leading global automaker has chosen Mobileye Imaging Radar™ as a key component of its upcoming eyes-off, hands-off automated driving system in personal vehicles, following an extensive years-long evaluation of Mobileye’s technology and competing systems

MAD MONEY: both Jensen / Benioff on with Cramer tonight (usually a good sign)

NVDA: #s tonight / 6% implied move. Positioning 8 out of 10 - long bias but tricky setup given stock has rallied ~40%+ off early April lows + LOT of noise (easy $$$ has been made) ... Bulls generally want to get past this quarter and look forward to likely accel in 2H as Blackwell ramp accelerates

NVDA BOGEYS: hearing Q1: $43B revs (sellside $43.2B); Q2 Guide: $45B (sellside $46.6B). Nvidia is one of only two stocks within Interactive Brokers' top 25 where clients are net sellers, showing caution before the earnings announcement.

OKTA: -14% cRPO of +14% was 1-2ppts light of where buyside was and smaller than their typical beat. Q2 cRPO guide of 10.5% was below street and below buyside; lack of a guidance bump not helping ... Cyber names have been printing fresh highs on daily basis (RBRK ZS CRWD, etc)

Industrials

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH) downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs

Fortive (FTV) increases share repurchase authorization by ~15.6M additional shares; declares special purpose share repurchase program for up to $550M in common stock

Honeywell International (HON) to add Elliott Management's Marc Steinberg to board ahead of split into 3 companies -- media report

Symbotic (SYM) downgraded to hold from buy at Freedom Capital

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) announces CFO retirement; reaffirms Q2 and full year 2025 guidance in conjunction with CFO announcement

Ford is recalling over a million vehicles in the US due to glitches in rearview cameras, offering free software updates to fix these potential safety risks.