Trading Observations

• Yesterday was a disappointing finish for the semis given TSM numbers (NVDA weighing on SMH)

• SMH trying to make a push again, need to CLOSE above $255 for the bulls to take control

• Broader market, SPX 5950 still a struggle, and unfortunate given yields continue to drift lower, let's hope today attempt holds

• Long weekend ahead, options will keep volume elevated, though interest will subside as the day goes on

• Market closed Mon with inauguration, though number of exec orders expected with some related to energy

• 6050 key to get a higher high, the gap to 5870 remains unfilled

• Housing starts rose to 1.499m (estimate 1.327m) in December from revised 1.294m in November, according to the US Census Bureau

• Bitcoin back over 100k gets the animal spirits moving?

Futures

DOW +287

S&P +50

Nasdaq +328

10-Year Yield - Being a good boy this week

Oil

BITCOIN - animal spirits?

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

TGT – Flat on positive holiday sales announcement on the revenue front, but margins didn’t improve as hoped.

V. MA, GPN – Earnings previews from Baird out. They like GPN on buyback likelihood of increasing, think MA could be weak on the Q, and like Visa a lot on strong payment data.

ICE – JPM calls in their top long-term idea on increased gas, oil, and interest rate trading as well as a move into mortgage.

TFC – Up 3% despite a Q1 guide down. Better than low expectations.

CFG – Down 1% on a similar to TFC guide. Worse than high expectations.

STT – Down 3% - NII flat forecast is below peers coming in ~+3%.

HBAN – beat by 2c; revs beat by $60M

HOOD – Raised to top pick at Citi

PTON – Apparel expands offerings to US Retailers

NVO - Novo-Nordisk ADR’s fall 4.41% premarket after semaglutide trial data and Ozempic, Wegovy are targeted in Medicare price negotiations. Potential support zone today $76-$80.

Technology

AAPL: break sub 100D not healthy; EPS cant come soon enough .... Source of funds for all as '25 headlines remain negative (Android mkt shr gains in China; px cuts; Zuck dunking on Apple during Rogan; lackluster Apple Intelligence reviews; monster run to end 2024; etc)

AAPL: +70bps Evercore adds to Tactical Outperform List post wave of negative headlines

CART: Yipit out after the close saying Q4 GTV finished inline to slightly above street

CRM upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen.

CVNA: +10% back-to-back days .. few things: (1)Hindenburg shutting down so cant publish further; (2)Yipit asys Q1 off to strong start w/ 40%+ volume growth .. Basham/Wedbush hosted Used Car Outlook call ystrdy with healthy demand; "We expect CVNA and KMX to capitalize on rising demand, with another strong 4Q24 beat for CVNA at 2025 guidance at least in line with consensus.

INTC - shares are up 5% in premarket trading Friday after a report from the website SemiAccurate said the company may be an acquisition target.

NVDA: px action + #s a long way out (2/26) ... concerns remain regarding the shipment of Nvidia's GB200 NVL72 .. TSMC talking up accelerator chips (MRVL AVGO)

QRVO: +8% WSJ report Starboard 7.7% stake

TikTok, Trump's incoming national security adviser said the new Republican administration will keep the social media app used by 170 million Americans alive in the U.S. if there is a viable deal and top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer urged President Joe Biden to extend by 90 days a deadline to shut it down on Sunday

PLTR - Shield AI, a maker of drones and software whose customers include the Ukrainian and U.S. governments, is in talks to raise hundreds of millions of dollars from investors including PLTR & LMT https://tinyurl.com/y53ucbsj

NET upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup and raised tgt to $145 from $95 saying they have higher conviction on Cloudflare's ability to sustainably deliver 27%-30% annual revenue growth. Citigroup also opened a positive 90-day watchlist on OKTA and negative 90-day on CRWD

Industrials 

SLB beat by 2c; revs beat by $100M – raising their dividend

FAST – Q4 Revs/Operating Income/EPS miss consensus, Dec ADS below Baird estimates, stock trading down 5%. Reported $1.82B, $344.8M and $0.46, compared to cons of $1.84B/$363M/$0.48. Reported Dec ADS 0.0%, compared to Baird estimate of +2%

RIVN and U.S. Department Of Energy (DOE) finalize loan agreement to support future Georgia manufacturing site; closes $6.6B loan agreement with U.S. DOE.

American Air (AAL) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $20

Axalta (AXTA) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $41

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James

DuPont de Nemours (DD) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe

FAST – Q4 Revs/Operating Income/EPS miss consensus, Dec ADS below Baird estimates, stock trading down 5%. Reported $1.82B, $344.8M and $0.46, compared to cons of $1.84B/$363M/$0.48. Reported Dec ADS 0.0%, compared to Baird estimate of +2%.

Otis (OTIS) authorizes new $2B repurchase program, effective 16-Jan-25.

Polestar (PSNY) Cut to Neutral at Cantor

Plug Power (PLUG) closes $1.66B loan guarantee from DOE

Southwest Air (LUV) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $31

Watsco (WSO) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James