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Market Snapshot
River1 Asset Management
October 28, 2025
Morning Note
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Trading Observations
Earnings dominating, but nothing to change the narrative as we await the Fed and the Mag7 names tomorrow
Couple of breakaway gaps in SPX that eventually will be filled
ADP Begins Weekly Jobs Estimate, Sees 14,250 Job Gain
6807/6750 support
Seems like the march to 7000 is upon us
With Fed cut likely tomorrow, agree or disagree, history suggests higher https://tinyurl.com/zjcw6x25 [tinyurl.com]
Complacency is setting in short-term https://tinyurl.com/mpkym8ax [tinyurl.com]
Shelter coming down, but needs to accelerate https://tinyurl.com/mrhxj94e [tinyurl.com]
Home price-to-income ratio surpassed the peak it reached in the 2000s housing boom https://tinyurl.com/mvwsy58j [tinyurl.com]
Futures
DOW +200
S&P +7
Nasdaq +44
Financials / Consumer / Healthcare
PYPL (RVER Holding) – Up 11% - EPS solid with strong Venmo comments, guidance higher, but the real driver here is a deal with ChatGPT/OpenAI to become the first payment platform associated. We think this name was dirty cheap and needed a catalyst, and this looks to be the one.
SOFI (RVER Holding) – Up 4% - Solid revenue beat. This name is far from cheap at over 5x P/B vs JPM 2.4x, but its growing faster and more profitably than bank peers, and the market is in love with those factors currently.
LLY (RVER Holding – Flat on comments they have already produced billions of pill weight loss drugs that are ready to go upon approval.
UNH – Up 5% on solid earnings and growth into 2026. Given there’s no ACA decision yet its hard to think what they are basing this on, but still execution is currently strong and multiple cheap to historical.
NCLH – Down 4% on news a Mediterranean voyage is stranded. RCL is down 9% on weak Q4 forecast.
W – Wayfair up 12% on strong earnings. Hurt on Chinese tariffs, this is another name working through them well into an underweight market.
DHI – The homebuilder down 5.5% on in line revenue and wide guidance, with margins clearly taking a hit. Backlog looks fine.
VFC – Up 2.5% on Vans driving the growth bus.
SYY – Sysco Foodservice down 4% on a slight volume miss.
Crypto – GLXY offering $1B in bonds and the sector down a bit.
DJT - TRUMP MEDIA SHARES JUMP 10% AS FIRM TO ENTER PREDICTION MARKETS
Technology
AAPL: services business remains a juggernaut despite legal/regulatory pressure, and is set to generate >$100B in revenue this year (FT)
ADBE: Adobe MAX in LA - opening keynote @ 12pm ET + Investor Q&A session @ 430pm ET
AMZN efficiency contd: report Co to cut 14,000 overall corporate roles
CHKP: +10% Revenue reaccel to 7% vs 6% in prior quarter. Large billings beat with 20% growth. More momentum in its backlog which will convert to revenue in near future. EPS beat by ~1.47 from tax provision. CFO beat despite $65 million in tax payments ....
CLS: +12% massive beat + raise - "The demand outlook from our largest customers, who continue to make significant investments in AI data center infrastructure, remains strong, supporting our 2026 annual outlook with indications of these dynamics continuing into 2027"
FFIV: -6% hit on lackluster guide; Q1 and Full year guide both below. "F5 anticipates some near-term disruption to sales cycles as customers focus on assessing and remediating their environments following the recent security incident.
GOOGL: up 10 out of 11; once again alpha leader within megacap cohort. YTD gains at 42% (vs Nvidia +43%) .... optimism around TPUs skyrocketing after the 1M Anthropic chip deal
Memory / Weaker in pre: MU (-1.5%), SNDK (-1.5%) on lingering reports Samsung launching aggressive 30% price cut strategy in HBM and initial quotes 6-8% lower than SK Hynix .... feels like ppl looking for any excuse to take profits
MSFT: Azure bogey 40%+
NVDA: Jensen keynote at GTC DC in Washington @ 12pm ET
PINS: -2.9% Cleveland checks source of weakness: "Signs of Weaker Exit-Rate in Retail/CPG – Competition Likely Limiting the Flow-Thru of a Successful Performance+ Product Cycle.Saw instances of slowing Retail/CPG spend at quarter-end, with weakness primarily in Brand advertising (~60%), somewhat offset by better trends in DR (~40%).
QCOM: rallied/squeezed as Qualcomm announced its new AI200 and AI250 data center accelerators to compete with NVDA in the AI compute market. The AI200 will start shipping next year, while the AI250 is planned for 2027
STX: #s tonight / 10% implied move. Focus on supply / visibility beyond 2026 (+260% off Apr lows; +54% since early August)
SWKS / QRVO - Skyworks Solutions Inc. has agreed to buy Qorvo Inc. in a cash and stock deal that values the company at about $10 billion and has the potential to bolster a key part of the US chips supply chain.
Industrials
NUCLEAR POWER: Westinghouse, Cameco, and Brookfield Asset Mgmt. announced a strategic partnership w/the US gov’t aimed at accelerating the deployment of nuclear power in the US (“at least $80 billion of new reactors will be constructed across the United States using Westinghouse nuclear reactor technology”)
Trump signs trade deal w/ Japan’s new leader https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-talk-trade-security-with-japans-new-leader-takaichi-2025-10-27/ [reuters.com]
AOS – Q3 beats small. Lowers top end of guidance by a nickel. Mgmt commentary cites weakening new US home construction and Chinese headwinds as reasons for lowered outlook. Reports Q3 EPS $0.94 vs FactSet $0.91. FY Guidance (Dec 2025): EPS $3.70-3.85 vs prior guidance $3.70-3.90 and FactSet $3.84.
Ramaco Resources (METC) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; $33 PT
UPS – Q3 beats, Q4 Revs guided a touch above consensus, FY metrics reaffirmed. Expectations were quite low, stock trading up 10%.
XYL – top/bottom beat. Raises guidance by more than beat. Reports Q3 EPS $1.37 ex-items vs FactSet $1.23. FY Guidance (Dec 2025): Adj EPS $5.03-5.08 vs prior guidance $4.70-4.85 and FactSet $4.84.