Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
July 08, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Not much incremental
A healthy pullback with decent close
10-yr yield creeping up a bit a hindrance, but as long as 4.5% contained not a significant headwind
May need to consolidate more, but still a bullish backdrop (even with dip S&P still above 5 day ma) and leaders were flat/up suggesting tariff noise
TACO Tuesday? https://tinyurl.com/5n7m8c3u [tinyurl.com]
Oscillators still very overbought, but 6175 first support with 6100 likely to hold if we get that far in my view
Thought worth noting https://tinyurl.com/bdz4w4dd [tinyurl.com]
6275 now resistance
Hedge funds still skeptical https://tinyurl.com/yv6559wu [tinyurl.com]

Tariff Roulette: Trump’s updated tariff rates effective Aug 1 ... 40% – Myanmar, Laos; 30% – Bosnia & Herzegovina, South Africa; 36% – Thailand, Cambodia; 35% – Bangladesh, Serbia; 32% – Indonesia; 25% – Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Tunisia, Kazakhstan .... China (30%) & Vietnam (20%) announced last week .... some critical trading partners (incl India and the EU) didn’t receive letters (suggesting deals with both could be forthcoming)

Upgrades – OZK, CADE, COF, CFR, FIBK, GD, KEY, EYE, PSN, PNC, SEDG, SWX, SWK, RUN, TFC, UWMC, VRT

Downgrades – BAC, BRSP, BWXT, CACI, CIEN, COIN, CMA, CORZ, CRWV, DDOG, ENPH, EXEL, THFF, FHB, GS, JSPR, JPM, KLAC, NEM, NOC, SAGE, SHAK, TPIC, UCB, WNS

Futures

DOW -43

S&P +8

Nasdaq +68

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI) said it’s adding new private-markets funds that will allow retail clients to invest in closely held companies including SpaceX, OpenAI and Epic Games

MCO - UBS raised the target on Moody's Corp. to $515 from $445. Maintains neutral rating.

Novartis wins approval for first Malaria medicine for babies – FT

NVO - NOVO NORDISK NEW WEGOVY DOSE SUBMITTED TO EMA FOR APPROVAL

Technology

Semis: bouncing in pre ... AMD +1.8%, MU/MRVL+1.2%, NVDA/ARM/ALAB+1%, AVGO+0.8%

Tesla (TSLA) +1.2%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.8%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.5% Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.3%, Apple (AAPL) +0.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.1%

AAPL: UBS - Apple's App Store reported rev was up 12% as the U.S. dollar weakened in the quarter, though on an FX-neutral basis, June App Store revenue growth slowed 70bps m/m to 10%; Says growth was fairly consistent between the U.S. and the rest of world on a reported basis, but comps were up 18% in the U.S. vs. 10% in ROW

AI talent war in the headlines again with META hiring top AI models executive away from AAPL [streetaccount.com].

AMZN: Prime Day kicking off .... Adobe estimates total sales over the four-day Amazon Prime event of ~$23.8B (Reuters)

CIEN: -4% MS downgrading to UNDERWEIGHT - "shrs are trading above its 3-yr valuation avg, creating a risk/reward skewed more negatively given minimal earnings follow-through on the rev upside

CRCL: initiated UNDERPERFORM at Mizuho - firm says is bearish on the shares, saying it sees 25%-30% potential downside to the fiscal 2027 consensus reve estimate of $4.5B; also concerned about the company's rising distribution costs

DDOG: -3% Cut to SELL at Gugg (yet to see details); up 9 out of 11 weeks w/ shr jumping 17% last week on S&P 500 add .... ~86% off lows / see $140 as major nt support

KLAC: -1.2% as WFC downgrading - struggles with the drivers required to deliver further 2026 upside to its already above-Street ests. Lowering its 2026 leading edge F/L forecast as it expects spend to only be driven by TSMC 2nm + 3nm AZ with another transition year for Intel/Samsung

VRT: +2.5% upgraded at Melius Research ...

Industrials

AeroVironment (AVAV) initiated with an overweight rating, $335 PT at Cantor

BWX Technologies (BWXT) downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank

CACI International (CACI) downgraded to market perform from outperform at Raymond James

Enphase Energy (ENPH) downgraded to hold from buy at TD Cowen

ENPH [streetaccount.com], RUN [streetaccount.com] and SEDG [streetaccount.com] lower after Trump called for stricter enforcement of clean energy rules.

General Dynamics (GD) upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) initiated with an overweight rating, $60 PT at Cantor

Northrup Grumman (NOC) downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank

Parsons (PSN) upgraded to strong buy from market perform at Raymond James

SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) upgraded to sector weight from underweight at KeyBanc

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) upgraded to peer perform from underperform at Wolfe Research

SunRun (RUN) upgraded to sector weight from underweight at KeyBanc

TopBuild (BLD) to acquire Progressive Roofing in all-cash transaction valued at $810M

TPI Composites (TPIC) downgraded to hold from buy at TD Cowen

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) upgraded to buy from hold at Melius Research