Market Snapshot

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

  • Trump was far more aggressive on “Liberation Day” than what the market expected.

  • Now the wait and see on what countries do to retaliate.  Fasten your seatbelts

  • US JOBLESS CLAIMS 219,000 IN MARCH 29 WEEK; EST. 225K

  • Tesla Deliveries 336,681, -13% y/y, estimate 390,343.  Worse than feared

  • 5660 resistance vs. 5560 support if we press zones which may happen

Futures

DOW -1237

S&P -206

Nasdaq -875

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

Financials: JPMorgan (JPM) -3.7%, Bank of America (BAC) -4.1%, Wells Fargo (WFC) -4.1%, Morgan Stanley (MS) -5.6%, Goldman Sachs (GS) -4.7%, Citigroup (C) -4.7%; crypto stocks also slide

Consumer: Walmart (WMT) -5.4%, Target (TGT) 8.3% , Nike (NKE) -11%, Skechers (SKX) -11%, Deckers Outdoor (DECK) -14%, On Holding (ONON) -18%, JetBlue (JBLU) -4.6%, Carnival (CCL) -7.3%, DraftKings (DKNG) -5.6%

High Beta Financials – HOOD and UPST down 11%, SOFI down 9%, most of the larger banks down 4-5% (lower asset management fees, less M&A and deal activity). For now, financials are no safe haven.

JPM Large Cap Bank Earnings Preview (They start late next week) – They are downgrading USB. Investment banking will be the negative macro catalyst. Consumer spending also pulled back in Q1.

JPM Homebuilder Earnings Preview – They remain cautious on homebuilders, more positive on building products on repairs/remodels.

Consumer discretionary drubbing – Due to overseas production (nobody saw these huge tariffs in places like Cambodia coming), These names are getting taken to the woodshed based on their valuations and production locations. ONON is down 19%, DECK 15%, NKE 13%, Wayfair 19%, CROX 14%, LULU 15%, etc. There are probably some good buys in these names down here, but earnings are in fact going to be an issue.

RH tumbles 30% after the luxury home furnishing company’s annual revenue growth forecast trailed Wall Street expectations. Analysts note that new round of tariffs add “significantly more uncertainty.”

The consumer (70% of the economy) is a focus post the RH print (indicated off 24% in the aftermarket). It’s about the consumer; recession fears will increase off this print. Large consumer Tech exposures include: AAPL, AMZN, SHOP, and W

LULU - Lululemon Cut to Neutral at Sealand Securities

PEP – the WSJ discusses how the company is focused on reversing share losses for its core beverage business, including the flagship Pepsi brand, which has dropped to #3 behind Coke and Dr. Pepper – WSJ

Technology

Tech: Broadcom (AVGO) -6.1%, Micron (MU) -6.8%, Dell (DELL) -8.9%, HP Inc. (HPQ) -7.3%

Mag 7: Apple (AAPL) -7.4%, Amazon (AMZN) -6%, Nvidia (NVDA) -5.6%, Tesla (TSLA) -5.8%, Meta (META) -5%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -3.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) -2.6%

LYFT falls 9% after Bank of America downgraded the ride-sharing company by two notches to underperform, citing reasons that include Waymo’s rapid expansion in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

NVDA - Nvidia Corp. is downgraded to hold from buy at HSBC, which sees limited upside potential for the AI-focused chipmaker.

MSFT has “pulled back on data center projects around the world” according to a Bloomberg article that hit at 5:45amET this morning. 

  • tech stocks were already encountering enormous pressure due to Trump’s tariffs hitting certain manufacturing hubs particularly hard, and this Microsoft article from Bloomberg will simply compound the sector’s pain, exacerbating worries about the multi-year mega trend in AI infrastructure witnessing a slowdown.  

TikTok – Trump is expected to unveil a deal whereby TikTok’s US business (aka TikTok America) would be spun off with ByteDance retaining a ~19.9% stake while US-based investors own the rest (the TikTok America business would license the underlying algorithm from ByteDance) – The Information

Industrials 

Automakers: General Motors (GM) -2.3%, Ford (F) -2.0%, Rivian (RIVN) -4.5%, Lucid (LCID) -4.6%

Volkswagen plans to add import fees to its US vehicle prices in response to Trump’s tariffs – Bloome 

LCID reported Q1 deliveries of 3109 vehicles, ahead of the Street’s 2910 forecast. In addition to Q1 deliveries, the company also announced a $1B convert offering. 

Eastman Chemical (EMN) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Mizuho Securities USA

Fastenal (FAST) upgraded to peer perform from underperform at Wolfe

Hayward Holdings (HAYW) downgraded to peer perform from outperform at Wolfe

Parker-Hannifin (PH) downgraded to peer perform from outperform at Wolfe

Sensata Technologies (ST) downgraded to in line from outperform at Evercore ISI

Waste Connections (WCN) initiated outperform at William Blair

W.W. Grainger (GWW) downgraded to underperform at Wolfe

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