Calendar

This Week – DLTR and AVGO the only notable earnings lead us from a short week into Friday jobs numbers. Conference season is beginning and will be in full swing the next 3 weeks.

Thursday – ADP Payrolls, ISM Services

Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls

Torrent Trading Observations

• What really changed yest? 

• Sold off but no 'obvious' reason the worry with NVDA (someone know about anti-trust concerns?) leading AI lower to start the month (NVDA had the largest market cap sell off in history)

• Hopefully, doesn't morph into something more ominous but an obvious catalyst easier to discount and 'price in' so risk remains elevated and selling likely has further to go

• The silver lining is selling not as intense as early Aug - ended at 78%, QQQ volume well below the early Aug panic levels

• By comparison, August 2 and 5 were 86% and 92% downside days

• GTLB higher, ZS lower on earnings.  DLTR follows DG in cutting guidance and gapping lower on numbers

• The start of chop until we get clarity on election?  

• Broke 5560 support with little fight and bounced off 5504 50-day ma.  Needs to hold or 5440 comes into play

• II Bulls neutral with a slight downtick slightly to 52% from 53%

• Will the Fed take notice? 

Futures

DOW -50

S&P -16

Nasdaq -98

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

GS initiates on 7 Residential REITs – Buy on INVH, AMH, MAA as they like the single-family home community. Sell on UDR.

JPM on Large Cap Banks – They don’t think the markets are concerned about credit as credit cards look to be plateauing. Unemployment can change that quickly however.

DLTR shares fall 11% after the discount retailer lowered its full-year projections for sales and profit. This following similar report from DG.

Hormel Foods (HRL) shares fall 7.9% after the company lowered its fiscal-year sales outlook, and its guidance missed the average analyst estimate.

ABNB shares slip 1.1% after Argus Research Corp. cut the the company to hold from buy on “slowing room nights growth.”

BYD shares are up 1.2%, after Morgan Stanley upgraded the casino company to overweight from equal-weight.

SG shares advance 1.8% after the salad restaurant chain was upgraded to buy from hold at TD Cowen, which said it’s possible for the company to achieve 5% same-store sales growth in 2025.

DKS - retailer reported stronger-than-expected 2Q results and boosted its EPS and comparable sales guidance for the full year.

Technology

NVDA shares drop 1.9% after Bloomberg reported that the US Justice Department sent subpoenas to the chipmaker and other companies, as it sought evidence that the dominant provider of AI processors violated antitrust laws.

SMCI drops 3.3% as Barclays downgrades the maker of servers to equal-weight from overweight based on uncertainty regarding AI margins and visibility on internal controls.

CIEN shares are up 1.5% after the communications equipment company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations.

ZS -13% shares slide in premarket trading after the security-software company gave a full-year forecast that is weaker than expected on both adjusted earnings and revenue.

GTLB - climb in premarket trading after the application software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.

CRM to acquire Tenyx, a developer of AI-powered voice agents.

Uber/Lyft – Bloomey out w/ a story late yesterday about how NYC’s biggest taxi insurer is insolvent …64% of for hire vehicles in NYC are insured by American Transit… https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SJ8SDXT0G1KX [blinks.bloomberg.com]

INTC: Intel’s financial struggles are dealing a setback to the White House’s chip strategy - Bloomberg; Intel Manufacturing Ops Set Back as Broadcom Tests Fail - Reuters

MRVL: Marvell could be a buyer of Intel’s Altera unit - IBD

Industrials 

ArcBest (ARCB) downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Wells Fargo Securities

Ball Corp (BALL) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley

Berry Global Group (BERY) initiated equal-weight, $76 PT at MS

Clean Energy - Jefferies initiates coverage of clean energy sector: ARRY, FLNC, FSLR, GEV, HASI & RUN - initiated buy - ENPH, NXT, PWR, SEDG, SHLS - initiated hold - GEV = top pick

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS

nVent Electric (NVT) upgraded to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc

Sealed Air (SEE) initiated equal-weight, $39 PT at MS

Teck Resources (TECK) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS

REVG – Q3 beats, FY EBITDA guidance tweaked higher