Trading Observations

• Housing starts were light, mainly in multifamily

• Still waiting on Powell - rates ticking higher into the meeting and 6085 remains formidable resistance

• 12 days in a row of negative breadth now putting a damper on sentiment (needed)

• My view - as long as 10yr rise stops at 4.5%, above market could get spooked

• For the bulls- SMH with a higher high and better technical setup, is the NVDA for BRCM trade done?

• A push thru 6085 should lead quickly to 6125.  6010 support....

Futures

DOW +133

S&P +10

Nasdaq +4

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

MA – MasterCard announced a new $12B repurchase program and dividend increase. Given the company is worth $500B, this amounts to 2.4% in shareholder return. Credit unions were also out saying November debit volumes accelerated but credit decelerated.

Visa – Top payments pick at MS.

BIRK - +8% on nice sales boost in closed toe sandals.

GIS – General Mills Down 4% on a lower profit outlook as they plan to lower prices to gain market share. Good luck with that against an Ozempic backdrop.

EXPE – Up 2.5% on a BAC upgrade on increased travel trends. Baird also said investor sentiment checks into hotels were positive for the first time in a long time.

MRK – Announced a pact with a Chinese company to license their obesity drug.

EU drug regulator reviewing Novo Nordisk's Ozempic over possible link to rare eye disease – Reuters

LLY – Alzheimer’s therapy approved in China

TGT, BBY – Added to Evercore Tactical Outperform

Technology

Biden to announce Chinese semiconductor probe in coming days https://www.ttnews.com/articles/biden-chinese-chip-probe [ttnews.com]

Megacaps: NVDA +2.7%, AMZN+1%, GOOGL +0.6%, META +0.4%, AAPL/MSFT unch (Nvidia down 8 out of last 9)

NVDA/MSFT: Nvidia +2.8% as FT reports MSFT purchased ~485K Nvidia Hopper chips this year, twice as many as the #2 buyer Meta (AI ARMS RACE ALIVE + WELL) .... NVDA held 100D ystrdy .. MSFT's strategic investment is aimed at bolstering its AI capabilities, particularly for its Azure cloud services

AAPL: cont printing frsh all-time highs. Def benefiting from some unwind as funding short but story remains pretty clean at moment. Bulls believe an AI rev boost will arrive with the expected launch of the iPhone 17 in 2025

AMZN: Taiwan is in talks to utilize satellite communications from Amazon’s Project Kuiper as it works to make itself less vulnerable to a potential Chinese attack on its telecom infrastructure

META: Emarketer says Instagram to hit $32B in 2025 ad rev; to generate half of Metas US ad sales in '25

UBER: up 1.7% as seeing some early unwind of TSLA/UBER trade (Tesla -2.4%) ... UBER has seen real support $60 level (area where LOs have indicated will support)

Data analytics and AI company Databricks raised $10B in biggest VC deal of the year, valuing it at $62B - FT

Industrials 

ADSK read: November US Architecture Billings Index falls to 49.6 (prior 50.3); Project inquiries index 54.1 (prior 54.1); Design contracts index 48.3 (prior 45.3). "Extended weakness in business conditions at architecture firms, increasing firm profitability remains the top concern for 2025, with one-third of firm leaders selecting it as a major issue-the highest since 2017"

EVs/Trump 2.0: Advisers to Trump are recommending a two-pronged approach to reshape the US auto industry: cut federal subsidies to boost EV sales while still fostering a domestic supply chain to produce them. Taken together, the suggestions highlight how Trump’s campaign promise to “terminate” EV mandates could manifest in policies that prioritize domestic carmakers and suppliers — but without taxpayer support for consumers

BA resumed full jet production in Seattle area following strike.

Honda and Nissan are reportedly discussing a merger amid stiff EV competition – Reuters 

Fading breadth is real: today was 12th consec session where there were more decliners in the S&P than advancers (longest run since Bberg data began in '96)