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Market Snapshot

Morning Note
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Trading Observations
Yields a touch lower (nice to see cool Eurozone CPI as well)
Trade in focus with tomorrow deadline for 'best deal offers' due
Trump-Xi call still not confirmed for this week
JOLTS after the open
META buying nuclear power from CEG (+12%) lifting all things nuclear, while DG + CRDO higher on earnings
MSFT more layoffs announced (AI casualties?)
Still stuck in the 5840-5970 range we've been in for last 3 weeks, with 5900 minor support vs. 5940 minor resistance in between
The next 6 weeks are the 2nd best 6 weeks of the year from a seasonal perspective so hopefully we resolve to the upside
Quietly 8 of last 10 days have had negative breadth, would like to see a change
Atlanta Fed now at 4.6% DGP growth for Q2 https://tinyurl.com/p3x36ye2 [tinyurl.com]
M2 expands to a new all-time high https://tinyurl.com/yvkxed8n [tinyurl.com]
Foreign money coming back to US https://tinyurl.com/cuwtzr77 [tinyurl.com]
Heavy truck sales slowing https://tinyurl.com/ykyw4z85 [tinyurl.com]
Futures
DOW -78
S&P -10
Nasdaq -21
Charts/Sentiment
CNN Fear/Greed Index![]() | U.S. 10 Year Treasury![]() |
Gold![]() | Bitcoin![]() |
Financials / Consumer / Healthcare
Trend- Hedge Funds seem to have a lot of layered shorts out in consumer names tied to tariffs and are so far being proven wrong and required to cover.
DG – Up 10% on earnings – Tariff shorts running for the hills as everything looks managed. DLTR up 3% with it.
HIMS – Up 6% after announcing an all-cash deal for a similar EU player, Zava (Not the Richmond fictional soccer player).
SIG – Jewelry name up 17% guidance increase into a very high short interest.
JPM on Large Cap Banks – Office CRE the only obvious issue and its adequately reserved. Card losses and small business credit problems up ticking. Private credit and BDC exposure very high. Overall i,t reads like a negative bending no-call note.
JPM – Mariane Lake said to be a major contender for CEO post Dimon.
Blackrock – Scalable Capital, which is a BLK backed co, plans to become the SCHW of the EU with new capital raise.
XYZ rise 3.6% in US premarket trading after the digital payments provider was upgraded to outperform from inline at Evercore ISI, with analysts citing positives such as resilient consumer spending trends and a boost from new products.
HIMS shares rise 6% in premarket trading after the telehealth platform said it agreed to buy European telehealth Zava in an all-cash deal.
MRK held talks to buy MoonLake Immunotherapeutics for more than $3B – FT
UNH - shareholders approved a pay package for returning Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hemsley, which includes a $60 million stock option award. According to reports, Hemsley will get a $1 million annual salary along with the $60 million award on a three-year contract.
Technology
AAPL: files appeal over EU order on iOS interoperability (WSJ)
AI Power Up: GSENEPOW up another 1%; within striking distance of 52 wk highs
AMD: strong in alpha post Wells Fargo commmentary - "more confident in AMD’s de-risked setup heading into 2025, citing continued y/y Data Center GPU growth into Q3 despite a ~$600M MI300X China headwind—well above what the Street is modeling. WF also highlights growing conviction in AMD’s RoCM software progress and future MI400X ramp via ZT Systems. EPYC server CPU momentum remains solid, with a strong Turin ramp and roadmap visibility toward Venice in 2026" ... adds to positive checks from several boutiques
AMD: CFO speaking at BofA today
AVGO: #s Thurs / previews cont to trickle out, mostly bullish. Best ASIC play, execution solid, strong mgmt team. Reminder Hock anncd $10B buyback back in mid Apr which sent huge positive msg to tech tape .... From Jefferies: "feel good about 2H25/26 numbers but leaning somewhat conservative into the print given meaningful TPU volumes won’t arrive until Oct and some potential headwinds from Networking revs due to H20 ban"
BMBL fall 6.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday after JPMorgan downgrades to underweight from neutral.
CRDO: +14% beat + raise; "results were fueled by surging demand for our innovative, reliable, and energy-efficient high-performance connectivity solutions. We continue to see growing demand for our solutions across hyperscaler customers to power advanced AI services, a trend we believe will persist for the foreseeable future" ....
MSTR: Strategy to offer 2.5 million new ‘Stride’ preferred shares to fund its bitcoin buying
NFLX: 2nd Happy Gilmore 2 trailer dropped over the weekend ... July 25 quickly approaching
NVDA: dips are getting more shallow - feels like wants to take another run at $150 (MS bullish note this am)
PEGA: +2% raising FY @ PegaWorld ... FY25 Rev from $1,600 to $1,700; FY25 EPS from $3.10 to $3.94
PINS: JPM upgrading - follows Wedbush/Devitt bullish note ystrdy .. JPM saying diversification of its advertising platform to provide full-funnel capabilities is supporting further rev upside; Pinterest is also driving solid user growth, with 85% of its monthly active users coming directly to the mobile app and over 90% of the firm revenue is generated from the app
SHOP: -2.5% Yipit negative
SNOW: keynote bullish ... will buy database startup Crunchy Data for ~$250MM as the company looks to help customers build their own AI agents (WSJ) - looking to grow its technology stack for AI-agent products -- similar to rival Databricks, which recently bought database provider Neon. Snowflake has expanded its partnerships with various LLM providers, including OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta, so large enterprise customers can deploy AI-agent offerings natively within its cloud
TSLA: Tesla Model 3, Y part of China campaign to boost rural EV sales, Reuters
TSLA: xAI seeks $113B valuation in $300M share sale (FT)
Industrials
Pres Trump: We are stockpiling weapons at a rate never seen before - Truth Social post
Just had a great talk with our Military Leaders. It is the strongest Military we have ever had, including the fact that we are stockpiling weapons at a rate never seen before by our Country. Hopefully, however, we will never have to use them!
OSK shares are up 1.4% in premarket trading, after Truist Securities upgraded the machinery company to buy from hold.
NIO drop 2.8% during the premarket session in New York after the Chinese electric-vehicle maker reported first-quarter revenue that missed consensus estimates.
FERG Q3 revenue beats $7.62bn vs. $7.41bn, big EBITDA beat $770mm vs. $644mm and EPS $2.50 vs. $2.02. Raises full year operating margin to 9-9.5% vs. 8.5-9%. 3% implied move
Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) shares rise 7.2% as it works toward an agreement to sell as many as 200 of its air taxis to a major Saudi Arabian investor in a deal potentially worth as much as $1 billion.
JetBlue not pursing merger with United – Bloomey
Latest Media
The most important chart in investing over the last 20 years, in our opinion.
This is what we are looking at.
Nuclear / Uranium ETF constituents
