Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
September 12, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

The market is roughly flat as the Fed quiet period and lack of interesting earnings sets in.
Volumes likely low until we get through Wednesday’s interest rate move.
If 50 bps is coming, look for a Wall Street Journal article laying it out.
Market thinks 25 bps and we would bet its correct.
Hope you locked in a mortgage when 10 year rates dipped below 4% for a moment. Feels like the near-term low for a bit to us.

Futures

DOW -107

S&P -5

Nasdaq +12

2-10 yield curve. Remember when it went inverted 1% and everyone cried recession? Now positive 50 bps.

We don’t believe the yield curve has predictive power the way it did in the past.

Stagflation is the new Bear decree. Even if all the growth is all inflation, the stock market doesn’t care, because in this case, the Fed won’t break it by raising the discount rate (the opposite). QQQs

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

RH – Restoration Hardware down 7%, blames tariffs. The market is blaming overpriced sheets.

FUN – Up 6% on a good summer.

Technology

ADBE – Up 3% - Expectations were rock bottom, and stock reported a hair better. $21 in EPS x just 20x is $410 vs $360 current, but there was nothing in the report like ORCL had making investors think the company is safe from competitive AI pressures long-term.

ANET – Positive Investor Day, although the street was hoping for 25% growth in 2026 and they only mentioned 20%. Market feels ready to love this name regardless of minor missteps.

WBD – Up another 8% - Paramount/PSKY likely to bid for it as media realizes it must consolidate again.

JOBY, UBER – Quad copter taxi company JOBY is partnering up with UBER for rides, up 5%.

SMCI – Up 6% on start of NVDA Blackwell shipments.

AAPL – iPhone Air delivery time in China is now being described as “later”.

MSFT, OpenAI – Said to realign in a necessary step as it was confusing as to whether it had a profit motive. Now it does, and the non-profit portion has a $100B stake, which doesn’t sound very non-profit.

TSLA- Elon out talking robots, trying to distance TSLA from “just an auto company”.

Industrials

FDX – Downgraded to sell at CFRA. The hate parade from Wall Street on UPS and FDX right now on this De Minimum change seems to be crescendo-ing.

GM – Upgraded to overweight at Barclays.

ALK – Upgraded to buy from neutral.

BE – Baird out with a Blue-Sky prediction and reaffirming it a Best Idea. They have been very right, up 150% vs S&P up 4% as of late.