Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
October 07, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Earnings don’t get started until next week, so this week is all Fed speakers with Powell on Thursday

Wednesday – FOMC Minutes, 5 more Fed Speakers

Thursday – Powell Speaks at 8:30am Est. Initial jobless claims out too

Friday – Goolsbee speaks (more hawkish)

Trading Observations

Little incremental, but the march higher continue
Blue skies above vs. 6700 first support
Fwiw, Ken Griffin talks on gold https://tinyurl.com/mrxbbp32 [tinyurl.com]
For the bulls, with IWM breaking out https://tinyurl.com/mr3zzefz [tinyurl.com]
Breadth to new ATH https://tinyurl.com/5ed46kdw [tinyurl.com]
Nazz https://tinyurl.com/32x434u4 [tinyurl.com]
Barcap suggests more coming https://tinyurl.com/yc2rrc9k [tinyurl.com]
Per Baird… The current 30 days in a row without a 1% move in the S&P 500 is the longest period of sustained quiet since prior to COVID

Futures

DOW +82

S&P +12

Nasdaq +76

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

PYPL (RVER Holding) – Up 5% on news they will enable small businesses to tap into their platform for advertising.

OSCR (RVER Holding) – Up 5% on news out of Washington both sides are getting closer to a healthcare decision.

DIS – GS out saying hotel traffic in Orlando points to strong Disney Parks traffic.

BRCB – Initiation Day for Black Rock Coffee Bar. 6 Buys and 1 sell so far.

Boat Checks at Baird – September wasn’t great as the softness continues, especially as we enter the winter non-selling months.

HOG – Harley sales checks point to low to mid-single digit decline in sales.

Evercore ISI negative on Housing Stocks – Downgraded DHI, KBH, MTH, PHM, TOL and TPH.

JPM on Restaurants – Calls low end consumers pressured. They like QSR, YUM, DRI and are upgrading EAT after a pullback.

STZ – Up 4% on strong beer demand. Perhaps the negativity in alcohol will abate from this?

Ken Griffin calls flight to gold “really concerning” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-Fpj_KO4bU [youtube.com]

Trump administration weighs selling parts of $1.6T federal student loan portfolio to the private market, Politico reported citing three people familiar with the matter. The discussions are said to have taken place among senior Department of Education and Treasury officials (watch shares of SLM, NNI, NAVI)

US banks vie for Trump's approval to lead IPO of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Trump says he’s open to H/C deal but gov’t must reopen first https://apnews.com/article/government-shutdown-trump-congress-7d7e6f9b4e52d05b692cc40ec6c96cf3 [apnews.com]

Novo Nordisk lays off dozens at its North Carolina plant as part of a 9K global job cut – Reuters

DLTR is down 3.8% after Jefferies downgraded the discount retailer to underperform from hold.

Technology

Nvidia (NVDA) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.3%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.1%, Apple (AAPL) -0.2%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.8%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.8%

DELL (RVER Holding) Estimates sales growth of 7-9% through 2030, up from 3-4%

APP - SEC is investigating AppLovin's data practices over allegations of violating service agreements for targeted advertising – hit late yesterday…

AMD is up 4.1% premarket set to extend Monday’s 24% rally, as Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold following the chipmaker’s deal with OpenAI. Musk appoints former Morgan Stanley executive Anthony Armstrong as CFO of xAI and X, tasked with financial recovery – Bloomey

SHOP – Baird - Q3 merchant tracker suggests ongoing healthy new adds. Based on our updated e-commerce platform survey and conversations with industry contacts, we believe Shopify continues to benefit from healthy growth in new merchants/stores, with areas of strength in North America, Plus (mid-market) and Enterprise.

Industrials

TSLA expected to unveil new, cheaper version of Model Y.

Airbus's A320 family surpasses Boeing's 737, becoming the most-delivered jetliner in history – Reuters

Autoliv (ALV) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $124

Emcor (EME) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $675

James Hardie (JHX) raising guidance: Sees Q2 adjusted EPS 26c-27c, consensus 15c. Sees Q2 revenue $1.29B-$1.3B, consensus $1.19B. Sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA $326M-$331M.

Homebuilder stocks DHI, KBH, MTH, TOL, TPH all downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI saying the sector rallied this summer in anticipation that falling mortgage rates would stimulate a rebound in housing demand and a bottoming in fundamentals, but a meaningful demand response has not yet emerged despite modestly improved affordability

Smurfit WestRock (SW) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $52

XOM - released Q3 earnings considerations with some focus on larger-than-expected timing headwinds in Refining.