Trading Observations

• Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.2% vs 4.1% estimate, however wages rose by more than forecast.

• Added 227,000 jobs in Nov

• Yields ticking down as hope of a Dec 25bps cut still possible

• Passive investments now account for 62% of all US equity fund assets, up from 35% a decade ago. Passive funds got another $500B this year.

• Investors pour ~$140B into US equity funds since Trump’s victory in anticipation of an economic boon – FT

• 6010 support blue skies above....

Upgrades – ACN, MO, ASAN, BMO CN, BRX, DG, EPAM, KC, TAP, PTON, PLL, PJT, PCH, PUMP, RSG, SHOP, SITE, FTI, TKR RIG, WSBC, WY

Downgrades – DE, NAPA, FTRE, FYBR, KMT, OGS, PCAR, ACDC, PLD, XPEV

Futures

DOW +25

S&P +4

Nasdaq +18

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

Bitcoin red, but all the bitcoin stocks are green because everyone continues to dance to this insane music. HOOD upgraded at GS on ambitious growth plan that may include sports gambling.

ACN, EPAM – Upgraded to buy at GS on constructive view of the IT services sector.

ULTA – Up 10% - JPM saying the bear case got several more nails in their coffin with this report, saying the short narrative is misplaced. The stock agrees today. “The Brands Need ULTA”.

IEP to sell 18MM shares of CVR energy.

AMC – Down 7% on an offer to sell 50MM shares.

PTON - +3% on a UBS upgrade. There is only one Sell rated analyst now.

LLY announced a $3 billion expansion of the Kenosha County, Wisconsin, manufacturing facility that the company acquired earlier this year.

LULU beat and raised, Women's accelerated and pleased with start of holiday season. -32% YTD before numbers last night… but stock has just moved back above the 200d for the first time since March and 50dma rapidly approaching the 200dma

LVS struck a deal to host pre-season NBA games in Macau - SCMP

MAR CEO said Q4 is tracking a bit better than anticipated, w/RevPAR up nearly 5% in October, reflecting a “pretty sturdy travel demand environment” as well as a “sturdy economic environment”

Technology

AMZN: new highs as Yipit had some positive weekly retail/AWS data and change in narrative coming out of re:invent seems to be that AMZN is no longer a loser in AI

DOCU: +15% healthy billings acceleration and landed well above top end of the guide. Oper margins ahead. Q4 billings guide ($875M vs est $859M). Another positive is that early renewals are set to support an acceleration in billings from a very depressed level

GTLB: +7% solid with nice rev beat ($196M vs street at $188), which is largest rev beat vs guide in 5 quarters. RPO also looks better. Sentiment/positioning was mixed heading in . Guide above

HPE: +1.3% results mixed/inline. AI rev in line at $1.5B (and below whispers of $1.7B) but orders of 500M missed street at $1.4B. Guide inline. Beat driven by Hybrid cloud and EPS helped by H3C sale

UBER /LYFT – both stocks saw selling pressure on Thurs after Google’s Waymo announced an expansion of its autonomous driving service into Miami (services will begin in 2026).

PATH reported op. income in FQ3 nearly double the consensus at $50MM (vs. the Street $27MM) while sales were a bit better at $355MM (vs. the Street $347.7MM). Doesn’t seem to be enough… stock -7% pre mkt… analysts see too many moving parts…

RBLX: +8% Thurs huge move here; bulls feeling more confident after Digiday article early in the week and CFO sounding positive on ad opportunity yesterday at wells. Also slight uptick in engagement data at Yipit overnight helped a bit

Semis/Fubon checks: (1)see TSMC and NVDA pushing CoWoS-L and BW production - think it is mix change as TSMC’s equipment suppliers still see 75-80K monthly capacity by the end of 2025

SHOP: +1.8% upgraded @ Loop

GWRE beat and guided largely above, though only maintained FY ARR outlook and bar high.

INTC problems are large, and investors should avoid the stock for now – Barron’s

PLTR - Booz Allen Hamilton and Palantir Technologies jointly announced a groundbreaking co-creation partnership to accelerate defense mission innovation

Industrials 

Boeing (BA) - FAA Administrator indicates that Boeing may gradually resume 737 Max production later this month - Reuters

Clean Harbors (CLH) initiated buy, $325 PT at TD Cowen

Deere & Co. (DE) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

GrafTech International (EAF) upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan

Kennametal (KMT) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

PACCAR (PCAR) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

Republic Services (RSG) upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital Markets

SiteOne Landscape (SITE) upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies

Timken (TKR) upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies