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Market Snapshot
River1 Asset Management
June 20, 2025
Morning Note
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Trading Observations
The largest options expiration ever, $6.8T, is set to expire today. There is also a lot of end of quarter rebalancing that happens today, and together, all that volume looks impressive, but if it’s set up properly, won’t cause big fireworks in terms of movement. Once expired, the market likely will have more free will in its next direction.
The Genius bill passed, and Bitcoin, stablecoin, and the crypto world remains happy about the positive regulatory environment. Check out our video on CRCL on social media.
Trump saying two weeks, but our military looks like it will be positioned before that. New moon is June 25th (just saying because it gives the best night cover).
Futures
DOW +50
S&P +6
Nasdaq +10
Today’s Signs of the Top –
OKLO is a nuclear play. It’s worth $9B, it’s currently built nothing, has zero revenue, and likely won’t for ~5 years.
Current rate cut odds – Sort of likely in September, but possibly October.
Financials / Consumer / Healthcare
CRCL – Up another 16%. It would take $300-$400B in stablecoin issuance to justify this price. Current is $45B.
COIN +5% on bill pass.
KMX – Up 10% on a solid beat. Used vehicle sales +7.5%.
HD, GMS – GMS +28% on news Home Depot will buy the building product distributor. Think wallboard and ceiling items.
DRI – Up 4% on Solid Olive Garden sales and a $1B buyback.
OSCR – Up another 14% - This is the beta healthcare play right now.
KKR – PE name showed that monetization’s through June have been in line in an update. They cheated though…most of the monetization’s are from public secondary sales.
Technology
TSM – Masa Son is pitching a $1T TSM/AI hub to the Trump team.
ACN – Accenture down 5% on earnings. Guidance wasn’t that bad, but this name is working off a very expensive valuation and has for some time.
MU – MS is tactically bullish into earnings.
TSLA – Baird downgraded and has received “no real pushback”.
Industrials
Despite the housing sales miss – Baird likes TGLS, GFF, SSD, MHK, MAS, and AMWD.
HD, GMS – GMS +28% on news Home Depot will buy the building product distributor. Think wallboard and ceiling items.
CAT – Lead time for large engines and turbines stretched to 2+ years.