Morning Note

Calendar

This Week – Largely devoid of earnings. CAH, CSCO, DE, AMAT and PANW if you’re squinting. CPI Tuesday is the lead dog.

Tuesday – CPI

Wednesday – Three Fed Speakers

Thursday – PPI, Jobless Claims (watching these more closely after bad NFPs)

Friday – Retail Sales, Trump with Putin.

Trading Observations

• CPI relatively inline – Relief for the bulls = Sept Cut??

• What we DON'T want to see is cool CPI and equities sell... would suggest 6400 a more significant hurdle to get thru

• 4.5% on 10-yr the line in the sand on any bond reaction

• 6340/6300/6240 support...

• China Demands Companies to Halt Nvidia Chip Orders Over Security Concerns

• Earnings still seeping thru, ONON + SE + CRCL most notable and big gaps higher

• "The percentage of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month percent changes in their forward earnings jumped to 84.1% last week. This measure of earnings breadth augurs well for the bull market and suggests that it could broaden in the coming months."  per Ed Yardeni https://tinyurl.com/37d4mxjx [tinyurl.com]

• Small biz optimism continues to rise https://tinyurl.com/2p9pcvm8 [tinyurl.com]

• CTA tailwind abating? https://tinyurl.com/3pxpa2np [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +264

S&P +5

Nasdaq +121

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

HBI – Hanes Brands up 37% on a potential deal with Gildan per the FT.

CRCL – Up 11% on its first quarter report. AUM up an astounding 90% y/y. Crypto continues to legitimize.

ONON – Up 16% on standout quarter as a clear share taker in shoes.  Revenue beat estimates by about 7%. Expects y/y revenue growth at 31% vs 28% prior, which is the thing all investors are currently chasing.

CAH – Down 5% on news they will pay $1.9B for Solaris Health.

PFE – FDA threatening to pull the Covid vaccine for kids under age 5.

Visa – Out talking hopes to leverage the $2T stablecoin market.

Technology

AI @ RISK: no prisoners being taken here ... WIX -6% to new lows. DUOL -8% slicing straight through its earnings gap. INTU -6%. MNDY disgusting T+1. IT Services zero bid + arguably most toxic pocket within tech

Elon Musk threatened to sue AAPL over App store rankings for AI tools.

CRCL: +6% 2Q headline EBITDA beat on consensus, revs +52% YoY

CRWV: lockup expiration on Friday, 8/15

GDOT: +16% strong qrtr; benefits from balance sheet optimization, growth from partnerships, cost mgmt., and momentum in the banking as a service (BaaS division), and the full-year earnings guidance is moving higher

INTC: +3.3% extending Monday gains .... shrs rallied late morning / held onto healthy amount of gains ...Trump seems to have changed his tune on Intel’s CEO after meeting him Mon afternoon, calling the gathering “very interesting” and Lip-Bu Tan’s “success and rise” an “amazing story”

LRCX: files automatic mixed securities shelf

Memory: DDR4 contract prices surge in 3Q25 as Nanya and Winbond lead the rally (DigiTimes)

NVDA/China: China urged domestic firms to avoid using Nvidia’s H20 processors, particularly for govt-related purposes, complicating the chipmaker’s attempts to recoup billions in lost China rev as well as the Trump admin’s unprecedented push to turn those sales into a US govt windfall

PANW: +1.8% Piper upgrading (down 8 out of 10 sessions) - early "platformization" success should reaccelerate bookings growth and prove durable as Xsiam traction grows. FCF leverage should be more consistent moving fwd with annual payments while Cyberark deal adds a high-quality asset

OKLO/Nuclear: -1% wider Q2 loss; targeting submission of Phase 1 of its combined license application for its Aurora powerhouse early in Q4 .... ppl may be disappointed by the lack of new customer announcements. The company advanced strategic initiatives in the quarter and reaffirmed guidance ... Bulls see Co best positioned in the small modular reactor group for investors seeking exposure to the pure-play nuclear sector

QUANTUM: IBM + GOOGL say working quantum computers are within sight (FT)

Industrials 

F on Monday announced an updated EV manufacturing plan aimed at producing cheaper models as the company prepares to defend itself against an onslaught of competition from Chinese OEMs (Ford says its new manufacturing process will allow it to profitably sell an electric pickup for $30K) – WSJ

Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS): Baird Non-Deal Roadshow in Chicago

Installed Building Products (IBP) downgraded to neutral from buy at DA Davidson; $252 PT

Mercury Systems (MRCY) upgraded to strong buy from outperform at Raymond James; $80 PT

Resideo Technologies (REZI) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; $35 PT

Tesla (TSLA) Rated New Accumulate at Zhongtai Securities

Latest Media

$ZM - Left for dead now extremely attractive valuation

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