Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
July 07, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Another all-time high
Big Beautiful Bill signed = long term bullish with tax implications
Jobs number priced July cut out
Magnitude of S&P expansion usually the beginning https://tinyurl.com/2sbmftdh [tinyurl.com]
Financial conditions have already eased even before coming Fed cuts https://tinyurl.com/mua8ph6b [tinyurl.com]
Which inflation trends certainly suggest coming https://tinyurl.com/5yvfs87m [tinyurl.com]
That said, pullback + consolidation time?
Seemingly pushing back July 9th deadline to August 1st, headlines will drive
II Bulls first big jump, AAII most bulls since Dec 2024, NAAIM up to 99% and headwind levels https://tinyurl.com/2xxdkzew [tinyurl.com]
CNN Fear Greed at extreme greed for first time in over a year with put/call at extreme complacency levels https://tinyurl.com/2m5dv3tz [tinyurl.com]
Short-term max overbought https://tinyurl.com/54j8crmf [tinyurl.com]
Seasonally into historically choppy period https://tinyurl.com/47r45jx9 [tinyurl.com]
Blue skies above, 6175/6100 support
Small cap positioning depressed https://tinyurl.com/ynxh2kj7 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -79

S&P -22

Nasdaq -120

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of MGM Resorts International (MGM -2.4%) with a sell recommendation due to the volatile Las Vegas market, while Caesars Entertainment (CZR +0.3%) gets a buy rating.

WFC fall 0.9% in premarket trading after the bank was downgraded to market perform from strong buy at Raymond James, which says the stock’s “favorable fundamentals” are already reflected in its valuation.

Progressive Corp. shares (PGR) fall 1.1% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the insurance company to equal-weight from overweight as competition increases.

Technology

BIG TECH BID: Apple, Meta, Nvidia and Alphabet collectively spent nearly $75B on share buybacks in Q1, or 25% of all buybacks in the S&P 500 in the quarter

AAPL: looked at building its own cloud service for developers-The Information

AI / Nvidia read: Hon Hai Precision reported 15.8% growth in quarterly sales on robust demand for AI servers and iPhones

AMAT: -2% downgraded @ Rothschild Redburn - believes China's push for semi self-sufficiency challenges much of Applied Materials' portfolio at a time when competitors have taken share in the company's core physical vapor deposition biz.

CRWD: -1.5% cut at Piper - "does not see a near-term scenario that would meaningfully increase ests" .. valuation driven call

NFLX fell 0.3% after it was downgraded to neutral from buy at Seaport Global Securities, which cites valuation in the wake of strong gains at the streaming-video company.

Semi Restrictions (NVDA AMD): the White House will introduce a rule limiting the sale of high-end AI chips to Thailand and Malaysia in an effort to curb alleged smuggling to China (Bloomberg)

TikTok / Social Media (SNAP META): Trump says talks with China on a TikTok deal to start Monday or Tuesday; TikTok is preparing a new version of the app for US users (The Information)

TSMC: delaying Japan plant to prioritize U.S. expansion (WSJ)

Industrials

CACI International (CACI) upgraded to outperform from market perform at William Blair

Genco Shipping (GNK) downgraded to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie

MP Materials (MP) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

Tesla (TSLA) trading lower following Musk's announcement of a new political party, the "America Party" – Reuters – Also, TSLA downgraded to market perform at William Blair

SHLS rises 3.7% in US premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded its recommendation on the renewable energy equipment company to buy from hold, saying President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spend legislation will spur short-term activity in solar.