Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
April 02, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Very volatile yesterday ahead of “Liberation Day” planned for 4 pm eastern (At the close of the markets)
Tesla Deliveries 336,681, -13% y/y, estimate 390,343. Worse than feared
Held support, but no longer JPM collar, month/qtr end as a tailwind https://tinyurl.com/ms5ruyhc [tinyurl.com]
5660 resistance vs. 5560 support if we press zones
China Restricts Companies From Investing in US as Tensions Rise – Bloomberg
For the bulls https://tinyurl.com/3x5pr7zr [tinyurl.com] and https://tinyurl.com/5n8zc44n [tinyurl.com]
For the bears https://tinyurl.com/5348b7h3 [tinyurl.com] and https://tinyurl.com/2w5a8bpb [tinyurl.com]
MAG 7 still a headwind https://tinyurl.com/34ksp68c [tinyurl.com]

Upgrades – ABNB, AVGO, CMPX, EQH, FI, HTH, IDA, JKHY, RGA, RKT, SRPT, SCHW, SMG, SRFM

Downgrades – MO, BECN, CRBG, FCN, NCNO, PARA, RGA, SNV, TCBX, TKR, TFC, USCB

Futures

DOW -296

S&P -50

Nasdaq -218

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

Goldman Sachs is feeling the heat as influential proxy advisers ISS and Glass Lewis push shareholders to oppose $160 million retention bonuses for CEO David Solomon and COO John Waldron, citing the hefty sums and lack of performance criteria.

TikTok – Trump on Wed will consider a final proposed deal that would see a series of US-based investors buy a majority stake in the US TikTok business, satisfying the Apr 5 sell-or-ban deadline – CBS News

OpenAI's ChatGPT saw a record surge in usage last week after the rollout of the chatbot's viral "Ghibli effect" feature, which allows users to generate AI art inspired by Studio Ghibli's iconic hand-drawn animation style.

PYPL – To launch its ad platform in the UK.

SCHW – Up 2% - Named Citi’s top broker pick on improving outlook. Lower rates would help sentiment here.

Visa, AXP – Out late yesterday, both names are looking to take share in AAPL credit card away from MA. Visa offered AAPL A $100MM upfront payment. Baird earnings preview positive on Visa expecting a beat and raise.

DPZ, DASH – Announced a partnership in select locations with a full launch in May.

JKHY, FI – Upgraded at GS. They like AFRM and XYZ as well.

RKT – Up 2% after an upgrade at DB on the COOP deal.

LULU – Cut to hold at Argus.

FI higher this am on a GS upgrade

TFC slips 1% after Raymond James cut the recommendation on the financial services firm ahead of the upcoming earnings.

KSS announced that Company’s Chief Technology and Digital Officer, will be departing the Company effective April 2, 2025.

JNJ says the Intra-Cellular deal, which it expects to close on/around Apr 2, will be 25c dilutive to 2025 EPS, a small improvement from the prior 30-35c guidance

SPWH climbs 35% after the retailer reported better-than-estimated quarterly results, saying it is “taking share and outselling the industry” in hunting and shooting sports.

HIMS: Eli Lilly says company has no affiliation with Hims & Hers

Technology

Ahead of Tarriff announcement - Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.9%, Amazon (AMZN) -1.4%, Apple (AAPL) -0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.7%, Meta Platforms (META) -1.6%, Nvidia (NVDA) -1.6% and Tesla (TSLA) -2.5%

China restricts companies from investing in US – Bloomey

BABA is planning to release an updated version of its flagship AI model as soon as this month – Bloomey

META head of AI research, Joelle Pineau, plans to depart the company - Bloomey

META is working on a new high-end version of its popular smart glasses product that could cost $1-1.4K – Bloomey

NVDA - Nvidia Faces Dilemma After Chinese Firms Rush to Order $16 Billion in New AI Chips – Bloomberg

Chinese companies including ByteDance, Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings have placed at least $16 billion in orders for Nvidia’s H20 server chips for running artificial intelligence in the first three months of the year, ahead of a potential U.S. ban on sales of the chip in China.

Defense sales: Trump is planning an executive order that would make it easier to sell/export military equipment – Reuters

NMAX drops 22% as the conservative media outlet pauses its blistering IPO rally which saw shares surge 2,230% since its debut this week.

Industrials

TSLA Reported deliveries that missed estimates. Deliveries 336,681, -13% y/y, estimate 390,343 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) upgraded to strong buy at Raymond James

Beacon Roofing (BECN) downgraded to sector perform at RBC

Timken (TKR) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

United Airlines (UAL) downgraded to market perform at Raymond James