Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
August 15, 2025

Morning Note

presented by -

Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php

Trading Observations

Summer Friday into next week’s Jackson Hole meeting for the Fed, and we move towards one of the more controversial rate cuts of recent history.
25 bps is meaningless and getting too much ink. The housing market needs 100+.
Market pricing Trump/Putin as a good outcome.
Everyone including Warren bought UNH. Will everyone now sell it? UNH leading the Dow higher.
AMAT whiffed, so SMH lower leading the Nasdaq.

Futures

DOW +255

S&P -7

Nasdaq -28

AMATs Customer List. It’s the Samsung and Intel business that failed it. TSM failure would have been a much worse result for the market.

When AI demand comes for your electricity bill, you may love it less

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

UNH – Big news is 13Fs came out, and Warren and a host of others did buy it on this massive dip. I’m going to guess the renters all come for sale now and it holds here at best.

NU – Growth bank NU up 9% on solid credit quality gauges. Social media loves this one and SOFI in financials.

CVS – Upgraded to outperform at Baird. They see EPS power of $5. Stock $68, so 13.5x is cheap.

Bank Credit – No signs of any credit weakness. Card loans are strong as well, meaning the US consumer keeps swiping, but they also keep paying the bill.

Technology

AMAT – Down 14%. AI demand remains strong, so everyone can relax there. Chinese choppiness and problems with INTC and Samsung do exist making growth “unsteady”.

OPEN – Up 8% on a Paul Tudor Jones bet. Could be old…don’t chase.

INTC – Intel had a week to come up with options, and the President gave them one, that the US takes an equity stake. This happened with GM, F, and AIG as needed. Basically, we say we need something for our national sovereignty and the government steps in and helps with some printed money.

CRWV – Down another 5% on IPO lockup expiry.

RBLX – Down 8% on news of a lawsuit to protect the younger audience.

Industrials

Homebuilders – Berkshire took a stake in LEN, DHI and NUE. They are very cheap still.

JOBY (Helicopters for the masses) – Up 8% on news of its first flight between two airports.

RCAT – Part of the drones parts world, and down 8% on a weak Q.