Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
August 29, 2025

Morning Note

presented by -

Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php

Trading Observations

Closed right at 6500 resistance
PCE came inline helping yields. Not too much surprise after CPI, PPI
Some tech weak on numbers including MRVL, LRCX, and DELL
Tariffs back to the fore with GAP + CAT lower citing headwinds
Will see if early weakness gets bought
6400/6500 still the levels
High beta suggests market wants higher https://tinyurl.com/bddraehh [tinyurl.com]
XLE time? https://tinyurl.com/yycbwh7d [tinyurl.com]
Passive just relentless https://tinyurl.com/4j9wj2y8 [tinyurl.com]
BABA higher on numbers should keep China tech rolling https://tinyurl.com/mpc993d9 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -104

S&P -17

Nasdaq -106

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

VIX

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

AFRM – Up 17% - Revenue of $876M vs $839M estimate is doing the lifting here. Next Q guide is just ok. We thought it was a little too expensive given risk/reward to the business model long-term, but short-term they are a grower, which is all that matters.

CELH – Up 6% on a strengthening of the Pepsi relationship.

WOOF – Petco Up 21% on a fine and profitable quarter. This stock had a huge short interest that is getting disappointed.

ULTA – Up 3% on a solid quarter. Great business model, but the move from $300 to nearly $600 has this one feeling a little full up here.

AS – LULU founder Chip Wilson sold $150MM of is Amer stock.

SOFI – CEO Noto sold $24M in stock without losing his voting rights in a shareholder deal.

JPM, Fin-Tech – JPM is out saying companies like Plaid are to be charged a higher fee going forward for bank data. Processors are thinking about raising prices to counter.

ULTA rise 3.1% after the cosmetics retailer boosted its comparable sales forecast for the full year.

Technology

ADSK: +10% better billings (36% vs 34%) and guide slightly above. Sees 9–10% ccy growth adjusted for the new transaction model, versus the prior 8–9%. FY guide moves up to 17–19% (from 16–18%) ... Co noted strength in AECO that is more than offsetting softness in commercial and that Autodesk Store

AMBA: +18% beat + raise driven by growth in Edge AI mkt / IoT momentum. Strong order book and higher shipments to support near-term outlook while auto expected to re-accelerate longer term

AMD: heard they talked down thermal issue reports as false and said positive on ramp of Mi355 and also noted “cadence of ROCm releases has gone to monthly from quarterly” according to ISI (TMTB h/t)

APP: back to mid-Feb levels; Scotia had CFO on the road + bullish takeaways

BABA rise 4.2% after the Chinese e-commerce giant reported a surge in revenue from China’s AI boom, helping offset a surprise drop in profit.

DELL: -6% margin concerns weighing .... beat and raised FY outlook. AI servers revs of $20B (inline w/ buyside expects). Softer server/storage revs + GMs again leading to concerns about AI server margins. Oper margins for servers/networking was only 8.8% (150bps below St)

GOOGL: down 1.3% in pre …. up 4 weeks in a row (14 out of 16) .... DOJ decision should get released - right? Desk has contd to see steady global LO demand for myriad of reasons (AI narrative strengthening, GCP momentum, etc)

MRVL: -13% missed on DC revs ($1.49B vs $1.51B) and Q3 guide light $2.06B vs street at $2.11B although Q3 outlook includes the divesture of Auto Ethernet biz on 8/15 on IFX. Networking beat by 5%. Sentiment/positioning was mixed going in, but DC miss a cause for concern

NVDA - DeepSeek Opts for Huawei Chips to Train Some Models

S/Sentinel One: +12% FY rev raised; healthy ARR beat. Continued to see success with platform solutions across Endpoint, Cloud, Data, and AI

RDDT: contd upside momentum .... up 9 out of 11 weeks

Industrials

CAT - hit by disclosure of higher tariff impact, which drove FY25 margin guidance to bottom of prior range. Tariff headwind for this year will be $1.5-1.8B (up from the prior forecast of $1.3-1.5B) ....

DuPont (DD) announces agreement to divest Aramids business (Kevlar and Nomex) to Arclin in a transaction valuing the business at ~$1.8B