Trading Observations

• Set for new highs? Closed right at resistance and 2.5 month base that if we push, could see some follow thru

• Quiet week data-wise, and earnings move to smaller areas until NVDA next week

• 6000 first support

• Few things of interest, all 11 sectors up ytd https://tinyurl.com/2enfmzn6 [tinyurl.com]

• With tech the laggard (until Fri negative) https://tinyurl.com/5wkf9xa7 [tinyurl.com]

• And market hitting new highs as optimism fades https://tinyurl.com/3m4xw6am [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +41

S&P +23

Nasdaq +115

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

Restaurant Comps – Continue to slow. Weather a factor, and the stocks won’t selloff until its not.

HOOD: -2% Wolfe downgrades - "key drivers underpinning the firm's bull case have largely played out and are now reflected in the current valuation and share price; EPS bull case has now become the base case"

WMT – Baird reiterating outperform on a solid year end finish setting up to good 2025 guidance.

Baird positive on XYZ (Square) into earnings this week but cautious on the TOST setup. TOST is up 3% pre-market on CNBC commentary positivity.

COF – Delinquencies in line while losses outperform. Loan growth modestly lower in cards and auto. In general, there is currently no credit crisis.

DKNG - Oppenheimer & Co raised the target on DraftKings Inc. Class A to $68 from $55. Maintains outperform rating.

Goldman calling for a June Rate Cut still. Market only has a 54% chance of that happening, and has September priced in.

Technology

Reportedly TSMC and Broadcom are each eyeing potential deals that would break Intel in two; Broadcom and TSMC aren't working together, and all the talks so far are preliminary and largely informal - WSJ

Elon Musk: Grok 3 release; Smartest AI on Earth https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/18/elon-musk-xai-grok-3-model-release-ai-competition-.html [cnbc.com]

AAPL Intelligence Issues: Bloomberg article discusses how Co continues to experience problems with its Apple Intelligence product, and a new AI-enhanced version of Siri is likely to be delayed by at least several weeks (the original release date of April will probably slip to May or later)

ADBE - Adobe’s net new digital media annualized recurring revenue (ARR) are tracking above consensus, according to M Science.

META appears to have invented a device allowing you to type w/ your brain. https://futurism.com/neoscope/meta-device-type-with-brain [futurism.com]

META: 20 days in a row .... after pushing into augmented reality and artificial intelligence, has identified its next big bet: AI-powered humanoid robots. The good: another moonshot to dream about. The bad: Reality Losses not stopping any time soon. Yipit was also out saying growth accelerated to mid 20s over the last two weeks

Memory/Nvidia: NVDA said to be secretly negotiating with Samsung, SK hynix to use SOCAMM memory modules ... With expanding Nvidia's AI play, SOCAMM's success could pave the way for the broader adoption of AI-driven hardware to change how personal computing works

MU - Memory Pricing: DigiTimes - strong fundamentals for DRAM and NAND drive memory prices to rise in 2Q24; DRAM manufacturers reportedly plan to cease DDR3, DDR4 production by late 2025

MSFT Nadella: “We have more than doubled our overall data center capacity in the last three years and we have added more capacity last year than any other year in our history.”

UBER: Dara hopes to eventually partner w/Tesla’s Robotaxis and offer them as an option in the Uber app (Quartz); Uber Eats filed a lawsuit against DoorDash alleging the company stifles competition and harms consumers and restaurants (WSJ)

Industrials 

BA - CEO Kelly Ortberg will testify to the Senate Commerce panel on April 2 about steps the planemaker has taken to address safety and quality breakdowns in the wake of a near-catastrophe on one of its jets last year.

Atkore (ATKR) reports receipt of grand jury subpoena from DoJ related to its PVC pipe and conduit products - 8-K

Fluor Corp (FLR) trading down 3% - Q4 EBITDA/EPS missed, FY25 guide below consensus

H&E Equipment Services (HEES) accepts $5.3B takeover offer from Herc Rentals – FT - The Ft reports that H&E is choosing the new bid over the $92/share offer that it had accepted from United Rentals in January

Southwest Airlines (LUV) to cut 15% of corporate positions

Tesla (TSLA) China may withhold Tesla's self-driving licence – FT

TSLA: offering discounts on Cybertruck as it looks to clear out excess inventory (Electrek)

Visteon (VC) Q4 EBITDA beats, FY25 EBITDA guidance a touch below consensus