Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
April 22, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – Mostly earnings and tariff macro.

Tuesday – 6 Fed Speakers

Wednesday – 5 Fed Speakers and Global PMI

Thursday- Durable Goods, Continue Claims, Existing Home Sales.

Friday – U Michigan.

Trading Observations

Little incremental as we await earnings, TSLA tonight really kicks things off
5100 held late so first level to watch with 4950/4850 below vs. 5250/5500 on the upside
Buybacks start again Friday, CTAs net buyers over next month https://tinyurl.com/38f998f7 [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +420

S&P +55

Nasdaq +215

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Gold - flight to safety cont

Bitcoin

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

EBAY: -0.2% Bernstein downgrading - says the operating environment for e-commerce has changed, as the data it tracks softened through Q1, while tariffs further exacerbate the risks.

CMA – Downgraded to Underweight at JPM on challenging 2025 growth outlook vs expensive shares. Baird defended it saying it could be bought/merged at these prices very effectively.

KMB – Down 6% - They also are talking down sales on tariffs and macro. Consumer staples like this name has been a “place to hide” and so there’s some fluff in the name currently. Tariffs to add $300MM in costs (~1.5% of revenue).

IVZ – Up 7.5% on a strong beat top and bottom line. They are trying to get into private credit and announced a $1B preferred buyback.

Baird Restaurant Surveys – Negative for the latest week. Easter can be blamed a bit, but even accounting for it the trends are negative.

GS on Retail – Downgrading Macys and Curves to Sell. They like TJX and BURL as defensive plays.

NTRS – Down 2% - Beat on NII, missed on fees. Backwards from typical.

ZION – Down 5% - They talked down outlook on macro, saying “less certainty”.

KSS – Massive outperformance yesterday on call buying causing a short squeeze. Some likely wondering if another activist is afoot, ala HTZ.

Technology

AI UNWIND CONTD: AI power + semi names took the brunt of the hit on Monday with NVDA -5%, CRWV -9%; VST/VRT -7.5%, ANET -5%, ALAB -8%, CEG -7%, ARM/CLS/MRVL -4% .... main driver was Cowen and Wells Fargo calling out AMZN pausing a portion of leasing discussions on the colo side, mirroring what we’ve heard from MSFT over the last month.

Megacap bleed Monday: seeing few defending a falling knife and lots of tariff/macro headwinds for GOOGL, META, and AMZN and then layer on top of that outgoing flows from the US, which hit large-cap the hardest and not a great combo ... Tues pre: AMZN+1.2%, NVDA+1.1%, AAPL/GOOGL+1%, MSFT/META+0.8%

CALX: +13% solid upside in Q1 on EPS/rev; Q2 guidance ahead. Added $100M to buyback

INTC: Econ Daily News reports TSMC receives 2nm orders from Intel INTC: Econ Daily News reports TSMC receives 2nm orders from Intel

META: -3.3% new lows Monday .... down 8 out of 9 (15 out of 18 sessions); Yipit said Q1 finished 1ppt above street, but no one cares about Q1 anymore as more checks saw early April get substantially worse

NOW: #s Wed night / 7% implied move. Major for enterprise SW + ppl focused on signs of weakness in Federal spend, as well as overall macro impact. Bogeys picked up: Q1 cc cRPO growth 21%; Q2 cc cRPO growth guide – 19.3%; FY25 Sub Revs – 19.4% (Current guide 19.5-20%)

PINS: +3% on decent volume .. assume positive 3P/boutique checks

TXN: -1.2%, downgraded @ Barclays - company's China domestic supply and high auto exposure create a "perfect storm"; says tariffs could push Texas Instruments' local Chinese customers to move to domestic analog producers over U.S. suppliers who will offer higher prices. It believes Texas Instruments is "getting hit from all angles"

Industrials

RENEWABLE ENERGY: Solar tariffs - the White House said it would impose massive tariffs on solar panel imports from Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia (WSJ)

TSLA: #s tonight | 8% implied move ... sentiment terrible on Tesla amid slumping demand (rising competition, macro pressures, and Musk’s political activities), Trump’s trade war (vulnerable from higher parts costs), and worries about it falling behind in terms of innovation (Waymo dominates the domestic autonomous riding industry while Chinese EV OEMs are leading on price, self-driving capabilities, and charging speeds) .... Expect Musk & Co to give typical barrage of hopeful rhetoric on call in face of missed deadlines + product disappointments

ATKR trading up 6% - Positively preannounced Q2 results after the bell last night – now sees Q2 EPS $2.01-$2.08 and Q2 Adjusted EBITDA $115M-$118M. Q2 consensus was $1.40 and $90.9M.

Avery Dennison (AVY) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $175

GE – Q1 beats, FY guide reaffirmed, stock trading up 1%

MMM – trading +2.3% after Q1 EPS beat and giving a guidance range that brackets the street. It is worth noting that the company provided tariff sensistivity guidance of ($0.20) to ($0.40) per share for the year.

NOC – Q1 EPS misses, FY guidance cut, stock trading down 8%

PNR – Q1 EPS beats by a dime. FY25 guidance reaffirmed. Stock bid +6%.

RTX – Q1 beats, the guidance missed the average analyst estimate.

Sonoco (SON) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $62

VZ – loses more phone customers than expected https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SV34ZOMRXLVQ [blinks.bloomberg.com]