Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
July 16, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

PPI came in unchanged at +.2% helping futures
4.6% 10-yr the key level to really raise concern
ASML (like many semis) reported... beat but FY sales growth forecast lowered
Stock down ~7% dragging semicap equipment names lower including KLAC, LRCX, AMAT, MKSI, will see if can try and rally as day goes on
BAC + JNJ higher on first blush
6285 resistance vs. 6230/6180 support
Oscillators coming back down to neutral readings
Opex Fri could keep things whippy
Put/call a surprisingly low .81 on a down day where NVDA masked a lot of weakness, seasonally one more push before we head into real chop? https://tinyurl.com/uxwteenj [tinyurl.com]
Breadth bad enough to be encouraging? https://tinyurl.com/4sjt4aak [tinyurl.com]
Not at a point to cause concern yet in my view, but do need to keep an eye on credit with more downgrades than upgrades in corporate https://tinyurl.com/76fbbbfb [tinyurl.com]
Russell 3rd longest streak of all time below ATH and 13% away from the old peak https://tinyurl.com/2b3asyve [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +159

S&P +13

Nasdaq +13

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Bank Earnings – BAC +1%, MS down 1%, GS +1%, PGR +3%, PNC +1%

Crypto Related – All higher on expectations of the stablecoin bill passing.

Pros – We have a new buyer of US Treasuries, potentially in the Trillions

Cons – We are staking a new world currency that is only sort of the US Dollar

Bank Earnings Day 1 Recap – Solid reports on fee trends. NII was mixed to poor. No sign of a credit crisis (we haven’t had one in 17 years now).

GPN – Up 6% on activist Elliott taking a stake.

JNJ – Up 2% - Solid top and bottom-line beat. Guidance raised 2.5% for the year. Innovative medicines were the driver with Tremfya and Carvykti the drivers.

MS – Down 1% - Solid beat and efficiency. Fee based inflows for the win (PE, Private Credit).

DECK – Baird is “sticking with it” in an earnings preview. EV/EBITDA at 10x makes it tempting. HOKA would be the driver.

HLT – Baird warning “not buyers” in front of the quarter as 31x 2026 EPS is too lofty against a meh hotel backdrop. MAR is cheaper at 25x.

XYZ- Baird out positive in front of earnings. The Reddit crowd hates it. Old Wall vs. New.

JNJ rise 2.1% in premarket trading after the pharmaceutical company boosted its sales forecast for the full year.

DLTR - Mantle Ridge/Cobalt Advisor disclosed an active stake with economic exposure in Dollar Tree of 11.2%.

Technology

Crypto-linked stocks (COIN +0.9%, CRCL +3.2%, MSTR +1.5%) rose with Bitcoin prices in premarket trading Wednesday as President Donald Trump said the House of Representatives will pass the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill on Wednesday after a procedural vote Tuesday failed

AMZN: -0.5% Bezos sells $1.51B worth of common shares, BoA removed from US 1 List

AMD: Wells Fargo positive - expects AMD to point to sustained datacenter momentum into the second half of the year; roadmap execution and building rack-scale strategy

AVGO: Broadcom launches Tomahawk Ultra AI networking chip built on TSMC's 5nm process to challenge Nvidia (DigiTimes)

MRVL: -2.2% on $9.3M notional ... ALCHIP / 3661 TT +6.8% huge outperformer overnight so imagine some chatter related to Trainium (Fubon had some comments)

MSI: UBS - "company's growth slowdown has created an opportunity in the shares. Long-term growth outlook is intact and its growth should move higher in fiscal 2026"

PLTR: +0.7% capitulation upgrade @ Mizuho (to neutral from underperform) - views the co's recent execution and momentum as stunning; includes material upward estimate revisions across Palantir's commercial and government segments. Palantir has a "legitimate chance" to accelerate rev growth for a 5th consec qrtr when reporting Q2 results in early Aug + well positioned to benefit from long-term trends in AI

Semicaps: ASML (-7%) says wont grow in '26 (unlike what said 3 mos ago). Sentiment here leaned short/negative .. Q2 orders support company’s 2026 backlog, macro uncertainties leave it unable to confirm growth for next year; GMs to weaken in 2H. Not great when two top customers cont to struggle in turnaround efforts (ie Intel, Samsung)

Industrials

US stocks linked to rare earth minerals (MP +5.1%, METC +11%, USAR +5.9%) are higher in premarket trading, set to extend gains that came Tuesday after Apple Inc. reached a $500 million deal to buy the metals from MP Materials.

AVAV - Index change: AeroVironment to replace ChampionX Corp. in the S&P MidCap 400.

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) downgraded to market perform from outperform at BMO Capital Markets

CNH Industrial (CNH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $11.50

Eagle Materials (EXP) downgraded to sell from buy at CFRA

FARO Technologies (FARO) shareholders approve proposed merger with Ametek (AME)

Fluor (FLR) downgraded to sector weight from overweight at KeyBan

F – to book $570M charge over fuel injector fix. Within the last four weeks, Ford has raised three major safety issues with its vehicles…so that’s cool…

Jacobs Solutions (J) upgraded to overweight at KeyBanc

QXO Inc (QXO) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $33

Rockwell Automation (ROK) Raised to Buy at BofA

SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) downgraded to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane

Wesco International (WCC) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Stephens