Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
September 17, 2025

Morning Note

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Trading Observations

Stat of Day: the Fed has cut rates with equity markets within 1% of all-time highs 16 times in its history. What happened next? Well, the S&P 500 was higher a year later every single time with an average return of nearly 15%

Futures flat to lower after a quiet night
China tells Tech Companies to stop buying NVDA chips according to FT, though NVDA only down 2%
Chinese stocks continued their rally overnight which will spill into ADR’s
We go into the FED announcement overbought
Gold and materials are seeing a little profit taking this am perhaps the same plays out in Equities
Here is the “Fed whisperer's" take https://tinyurl.com/yexcyxtx [tinyurl.com]
30-yr yield the lowest since April ahead of Fed rate cuts https://tinyurl.com/2bsby4jp [tinyurl.com]
WDAY up 6% as Elliott says things are humming
As the White House and the infrastructure stocks would like it, domestic investment is picking up after 10 years of underinvestment https://tinyurl.com/36ex757c [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW +65

S&P +1

Nasdaq +1

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

LLY / NVO - Patients on Eli Lilly & Co.’s experimental diabetes pill lost more weight and had better blood sugar control than those on an older, approved rival from Novo Nordisk A/S in the first head-to-head trial of the two medicines.

BHVN rises 2.1% before the bell after Citi initiated coverage of the biotech with a recommendation of buy, citing the potential for the company’s treatment of spinocerebellar ataxia to receive FDA approval.

Z/Zillow: +1.8% upgraded @ Bernstein citing improving revenue and possible tailwinds from lower rates

NFLX is up 1.4% in premarket trading, after Loop Capital upgraded the streaming-video company to buy from hold.

Technology

NVDA – CEO disappointed by china’s report AI chip Ban – Positive for BABA

DUOL – down 3% in pre; product announcements @ Duocon this yr had a lower profile relative to the past

GOOGL – up 0.4% Gemini app downloads surge on Nano Banana enthusiasm (Tech Crunch) ... remains my favored megacap as AI narrative continues to strengthen and SOTP picture becomes more clear with YouTube, Search, GCP, Waymo, Gemini/DeepMind, etc. Name many have been severely UW since AI frenzy ignited back in early 2023 (remember that Bard event disaster?)

Avs – Waymo approved for SFO testing ..

INTC – didnt see until post close ... rumors floating around on X of an MSFT/INTC semi custom tie up (TMTB h/t)

LYFT – and Waymo to launch partnership to expand autonomous mobility in Nashville. Waymo does not rule out more future launches with LYFT.

MNDY – to buy back up to $870M shrs

MU – positive previews cont to trickle in ... Wolfe: " outlook for commodity memory continues to improve due to multiple AI tailwinds; says that since Micron's positive pre in August, NAND sentiment has improved driven by hard disk drive shortages while DRAM pricing has proven resilient"; Susquehanna positive

PLTR – Baird Company Visit Highlights: Remain positive on growth opportunity as continued strong rev growth acceleration has trumped mkt concerns over valuation, mgmt focused on product and technology demo

PLTR – down 1% Salesforce ramps up rivalry with Palantir with eye on government contracts

WDAY – up 8% multiple upgrades .... positive reaction post Analyst Day (sentiment extremely depressed into event). Co forecast for adj operating margin signals stronger profitability amid concerns over slowing subscription sales; early signals that leadership has accelerated efforts to increase relevancy in the AI era. Lot still depends on macro / better execution ..... Buyback addtl $4B .... bulls: when the environment improves, Workday will be well positioned to accelerate growth

WDAY – Eliott says it has built a $2B stake in Workday, highlights support for management

UBER – Dara sold $28.6M worth of stock just few days after his bullish chat @ Communacopia ....

Industrials

CAT – Baird - Designate as a Bullish Fresh Pick, raise PT to $540/$495 as a combo of macro drivers, fundamental bottoms-up tailwinds, and proactive de-risking 232 tariff impact ahead of 3Q reporting create a uniquely attractive setup

DAL - announced a partnership with Maeve Aerospace to support the development of its hybrid electric regional jet, designed to cut fuel consumption and emissions by up to 40%.

AVNT – initiated overweight at KeyBanc; $48 PT

FDX – downgraded to in line from outperform at Evercore ISI; $243 PT

MTZ – upgraded to outperform from peer perform at Wolfe Research; $227 PT

NIO – upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; $8.50 PT

ORA – upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler; $102 PT

SARO – initiated positive at Susquehanna; $34 PT

TS – downgraded to neutral from overweight at Piper Sandler; $41 PT

USAR – Baird Non-Deal Roadshow