Torrent Trading Observations

• Another quiet weekend (good)

• Fed minutes Wed, with Powell the focus Fri - and have to think dovish given recent inflation data

• Given the cooling in sentiment first dip likely gets bought quickly with NVDA earnings next week the next potential major catalyst

• Some consolidation would be healthy

• Oscillators pushing into overbought, so upside may be a bit more difficult short-term

• 5460 first support (50-day) 5575 resistance

Wave Watch

Markets YTD

DOW +7.81%

S&P +17.11%

Nasdaq +19.41%

Bitcoin +41.36%

Futures

DOW +30

S&P +7

Nasdaq+19

Mainstream Metrics

10 Year

GOLD

BITCOIN

Consumer/Financial Healthcare

MA – Said to be cutting about 3% of headcount, or about 1k people – Bloomberg

Box Office - +40% y/y this week. Please send it all to the Reynolds/Lively household.

YTD Bank deal count is up 9% y/y with average deal size remaining small at $87MM.

JPM out bullish on LINE and cold storage REITs in general. Initiations coming out look 10 for 15 overweight, zero sells.

Fed Speak – Daly out saying he supports “gradual rate cuts” in the FT.

Baird positive on Hotel REITs as they think risks are priced into APLE, DRH, SHO and XHR.

Hyatt – Completed its sale of the Hyatt Regency Orlando for $1.07B.

DHI –Homebuilders - Barron’s was positive on the name saying it’s the home builder stock to buy now. TMHC was also upgraded at BTIG.

NFL to hold a special meeting later in Aug to discuss a plan that would allow PE firms to take ownership stakes in league teams – Wash Post

CVNA announced the development of its first auction and reconditioning "Megasite" in Kansas City.

DIS – the new “Alien” movie is the latest sign Disney has recaptured its box office momentum – NYT

Apartment buildings forced to offer more concessions to entice customers as rental growth cools - CNN

Technology

The next major AI-linked events will be NVDA earnings on 8/28, DELL/MRVL earnings on 8/29, HPE earnings on 9/4, AVGO earnings on 9/5, ORCL earnings in early/mid-Sept, and Oracle’s OpenWorld 9/9-12k

AMD is acquiring AI infrastructure provider ZT Systems in a cash and stock deal worth about $4.9B. Anything that can help AMD capture more market share in the AI data center market will be welcomed by investors, although there will be some strategic questions raised as AMD enters competition with hardware partners like Dell, Supermicro and others. Investors probably won’t consider the AMD-ZT combination to be a huge threat to Nvidia (at least not initially).

UBER was upgraded to investment grade by S&P (from BB+ to BBB-) - Bloomey

Industrials 

D.R. Horton (DHI) – Barron’s positive over the weekend - D.R. Horton is the home builder stock to buy now, Barron's says

Gates Industrial Corp. (GTES) upgraded to outperform at RBC Capital Markets – GTES did price a 20M share secondary (for holder BX) on 8/16

J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) board adopts new $1B share repurchase program - 8-K

Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) upgraded to buy from neutral at BTIG

BA new CEO is committed to a “reset” in relations w/the firm’s workers as negotiations w/its biggest union enters the “final phase” - Bloomey

BA /LMT are in talks to sell their rocket-launching JV United Launch Alliance to Sierra Space - Reuters

Put/ call at lowest since mid-July

Valuation

Apartment building falling

Rapid Review

Openwater Opinion