Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
January 10, 2025

NYSE Ticker: RVER

Trading Observations

QQQ -1.2% versus IWM -1.9% as rates jump / futs slammed post NFP …. Unprofitable tech, more spec pockets of tech hit hardest in sympathy
All data this morning is HOT, going to be very difficult to cut rates until back half of 2025 IMO.
Need to reclaim 5950 to calm the waters 5865 (minor) 5830 (major) support
Sentiment AAI bears above bulls for first time since Nov23 https://x.com/Chartfest1/status/1877325511262691371

Futures

DOW -311

S&P -52

Nasdaq -215

CNN Fear/Greed Index

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

FI, FIS, JKHY – Spending surveys out of Baird were “fine” and not expected to move the stocks much.

Housing Stocks – KBH, LEN Upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC, FERG upgraded at MS, MHK upgraded at JPM.

GS on REITS – They like BRX, EPRT, and MAA.

MCY – Down 30% on the LA Fires (reinsurance). ALL is down 5%, TRV 4%.

SQ (bizarre name change; now ticker chg): ticker to be XYZ

COST reported stronger-than-expected December comps with help from a widely discussed calendar shift another acceleration in traffic.

DAL strong as profit beats; sees best ever supply-demand balance supporting fares

DIS: says its ad-supported monthly active users (MAUs) have reached 157M globally, including 112M in the US.

WBA beat; stock +6%d +4%, COIN +2%

Technology

Tech call: Mizuho cutting Semis PTs (AMD STX MCHP); lifting Internet (AMZN GOOGL EXPE)

Semis/Analog: ON (-2.9%) as Truist downgrading - mgmt noted that recent demand trends have deteriorated

AAPL/China: China's 3C subsidy offers 500 RMB for phones and tablets priced under 6,000 RMB. Only one Apple model qualifies, making domestic brands the main beneficiaries

AMD/NVDA: both lowers Biden White House will impose one find round of restrictions on the sale of AI chips, although it’s not clear if this latest round of rules represents a material change from the present regulatory landscape ... Nvidia slams Biden move, says curbs wont help US security

AMD: cut @ Goldman - increasingly concerned that the rise of Arm-based custom CPUs, coupled with the competitive intensity in accelerated computing, will weigh on AMD's rev growth relative to peers. Will exert upward pressure on AMD's spending profile and, weigh on the stock's multiple

ROKU: -3% MoffetNathanson downgrading to SELL ...

TSLA: +1% launches its refreshed Model Y SUV in China; new price that’s 5.4% higher than its predecessor

TSM/Semis: +1.4% Q4 revs ahead - remains key anabler/arms dealer for AI arms race; TSMC sees 5/4nm, 3nm fab capacity fully loaded until year-end (DigiTimes)