Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
June 24, 2025

Morning Note

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Calendar

This Week – 14 Fed Speakers, but the only one that matters is Tuesday/Wednesday Powell in front of Congress. PCE Thursday/Friday.

Tuesday – Home Prices, Powell Speaks, FDX earnings post.

Wednesday – New Home Sales, Powell Speaks, MU earnings post.

Thursday – PCE, Capital Goods, Initial Jobless Claims, NKE Earnings post.

Friday – PCE, Some end of quarte setup, but Monday is the final.

Trading Observations

Despite the hiccup in the ceasefire, the market looks full risk-on mode to me this morning. Crypto higher, beta ripping, and short covers abound.
The market was gearing up a large short position based on war and valuation and looks like it’s about to get whipsawed to finish the quarter.
Today we get Powell on the hill, and he’s already put his cover letter out that states “not in a hurry to cut rates” for which he will get torched.
Fed funds at 4.38%, CPI in the mid to low 2s, he’s got room should be the counter refrain. Look for Trump to anoint someone else soon.

Futures

DOW +291

S&P +31

Nasdaq +213

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

JPM on “Potential problems in insurance” – There are none, the note is boring.

CCL – Carnival cruise up 5% on a solid quarter and good news about a pending boat loaunch.

Technology

AMZN – Now the 3^rd largest digital ad platform making $4-$5B annually.

TSLA – GS and others out there with Robotaxi notes. Most saying it was largely successful and impressive, but LYFT and UBER are up today as rollout looks slow.

Visa – “We’ve been embracing stablecoins”. This sector is white hot and likely stays that way all summer.

CRCL – Down 5% after Compass Point initiates at neutral and investors realize $250 is a ridiculous price (for now).

Industrials

JPM top Industrials Pick Note – AFL top pick. They also like AWI and ALLE.

Crop Report – Calling Duke and Duke…Corn worse vs last week but up y/y, soybeans unchanged. Corn down 4% in the past week and soybean prices remain below incremental investment levels.

KBH – Down 4% on earnings as they cut FY housing revenue forecast. Housing stocks remain cheap, which helps absorb the bad news that likely won’t change until a rate drop.

Rails – Susquehanna upgrades UNP and downgrades CSX

ARRY – Down 15% on a convertible note issuance. They make solar arrays, which is a mess of a stock sector currently (or very very cheap).

SMR - +6% for another nuclear player on a headline deal with Paragon.