Morning Note

Calendar

This Week – Last week was a mega cap earnings week, Fed, and NFPs. This week is none of those things. Look for second tier earnings names to paint the picture.

Tuesday – ISM Services

Wednesday – Two Fed Speakers

Thursday – Jobless Claims, 1 Fed speaker (Bostic)

Friday – 1 Fed Speaker

Trading Observations

• Quiet newsflow

• Reclaimed 6300 and closed the gap on very light relative volume (the easy part)

• 6340 would reclaim Thurs close with 6400 the big level to watch

• 80% up volume (2 in a row bullish) and almost 5/1 positive breadth encouraging with smids leading

• 6300/6240 support...

• Institutional positioning will cushion any dip? https://tinyurl.com/56uyyh68 [tinyurl.com]

• Semis on the verge of another surge? https://tinyurl.com/yer4eyea [tinyurl.com]

• Big 3 are now 21% of S&P https://tinyurl.com/2pjkv4x5 [tinyurl.com]

• Fwiw, IWM bounced off converging 50/200-day ma and on verge of golden cross, would be first since Jan 24th

• Mortgage rates finally breaking down, the lowest in 10 months https://tinyurl.com/dv3arem9 [tinyurl.com] 

• Housing stocks noticing https://tinyurl.com/4henhzps [tinyurl.com]

Futures

DOW -24

S&P +7.5

Nasdaq +64

Charts/Sentiment

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Despite rates, household debt levels not a concern https://tinyurl.com/4vp9kedn [tinyurl.com]

COIN - Coinbase Global Inc. is marketing a two-tranche $2 billion convertible bond offering with a 0% coupon due in 2029 and 2032.

FIS – EPS in-line; sales beat – raises FY outlook

HIMS - shares dropped in late trading after the telehealth company missed second-quarter revenue estimates

NVO – Downgraded to Neutral at UBS, as GLP-1 drugs “compounding appears here to stay”.

MELI - Revenue +33.9% YoY to $6.79B, beating by $130M or 2%EPS: $10.31, down 1.6% and missing the estimates by 15.3%....Reasons: more FX headwinds than expected & tax rates. Stock traded -4% post close

PFE – Beat and raise

BRK.B - is now down 15% since Warren Buffett announced his retirement.  Made its last all-time closing high the last trading day before the announcement.

Technology

Tech Earnings: post AEIS, ALAB, AMD, ANET, APPS, ATEN, BL, CPNG, CRUS, DV, FLYW, GFS, KVYO, LCID, MTCH, NWSA, OPEN, OSPN, PCTY, QLYS, RIVN, RNG, SMCI, SNAP, SWKS, TDC, TOST, UPST, VSAT, ZETA

AI CHIP TRACKING (AMD/NVDA): Washington wants to put better location tracking technology on high-end chips to ensure they aren’t going to restricted countries (Bloomberg)

AKAM: -2% MS downgraded Akamai to Underweight - sales growth will remain in the single-digits range with limited opportunities for margin expansion over the next 12 to 18 mos; elieves Akamai's transition to becoming a public cloud provider will bring a host of near-term challenges

AMD: +1.7% #s tonight / 7.6% implied move ... . Expectations HIGH as bulls already close to ~$15B in GPU revs for 2026 (flurry of cautious T+1, T+3 reactions in tech has def cleaned up positioning). Story solid as visibilty improves / demand path firms up (ppl in buy dip mode)

EA: catching upgrade @ Arete w/ PT $192

INTC LIFELINE? US reportedly told Taiwan that if it wants a 15% tariff (currently 20%), TSMC must either must either acquire a 49% stake in Intel or make an additional investment of $400bn in the US

PLTR: +6% crushed buy side expectations; muted move which speaks to lofty bar / expectations (one of best stocks on planet last 12 mos) .... Commercial rev growth 93% y/y (above buy side); total rev +68% y/y .... Closed 157 deals of at least $1M, 66 deals of at least $5M, and 42 deals of at least $10M; Closed a record-setting $843 million of U.S. commercial TCV, up 222% y/y. "We continue to see the astonishing impact of AI leverage. Our Rule of 40 score was 94%, once again obliterating the metric. Y/Y growth in our U.S. business surged to 68%, and y/y growth in U.S. commercial climbed to 93%. We are guiding to the highest sequential quarterly rev growth in our co’s history, representing 50% y/y growth"

PLTR - Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives raised the target on Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A to $200 from $160. Maintains outperform rating.

ON: catching downgrade @ BofA - "recovery may only gain traction 2H26"

UBER bogeys: #s Wed am / 7% implied move. Narrative here has gotten A LOT muddier over the last 3-4 weeks post Lucid deal headlines, Robotaxi widening footprint, Waymo/Avis partnership in Dallas,

TSMC - says it has discovered potential trade secret leaks https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/chipmaker-tsmc-says-it-has-discovered-potential-trade-secret-leaks.html [cnbc.com]

SNAP: #s tonight / 17% implied move ... One of most hated/shorted names in space

W: +2.8% Citi upgrading - impact of tariffs on the business is less than expected and Wayfair is well positioned to win market share; believes Wayfair is seeing structural improvements

Industrials 

Trump says he will substantially raise tariffs on India for not ceasing purchases of Russian oil – FT

ATI Inc. (ATI) upgraded to strong buy at CFRA

Caterpillar (CAT) – Q2 EPS misses consensus ($4.72 vs. $4.88), guides Q3 sales and rev to grow moderately y/y (implies >$16.1B vs cons $16.0B), stock trading down 3.5% on light volume

Dow Inc (DOW) upgraded to buy from neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; $40 PT

Eaton (ETN) – Q2 beats, Q3 EPS guidance below consensus, FY EPS midpoint raised, stock trading down 6.5%

Fortive Corp (FTV) - Insider transaction: Fortive CFO Mark Okerstrom discloses purchase of 21.3K shares - Form 4

International Paper (IP) downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; $54 PT

QXO, Inc (QXO) initiated overweight at Wells Fargo Securities; $30 PT

Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) enters definitive agreement to acquire Elo Touch Solutions for $1.3B in cash

Latest Media

$OSCR - Hot name in retail and social channels

Very attractive if models’ estimates hold.