Trading Observations

• Rallied right into 6100 resistance and stalled, given overbought and straight up, couple days sideways wouldn't be a bad thing

• AAII Bulls up to 43% from 25% in a week

• Next wave of big tech earnings late next week

• 6050 first support

• Semis https://tinyurl.com/zhz2d6d9 [tinyurl.com]

• Still time to press beta if a bull? https://tinyurl.com/4ana73y6 [tinyurl.com]

• Recession seems a long way off https://tinyurl.com/yc5pc49y [tinyurl.com]

• CHINA BUY THE DIP: China orders state-owned mutual funds and insurers to bolster domestic equity markets following poor YTD price action (WSJ)

Futures

DOW +44

S&P -6

Nasdaq -105

10-Year Yield

Oil

BITCOIN

Financials / Retail / Healthcare

CMA – No credit problems, but they guided below the street yesterday, which is why it was weak.

NTRS – Down 1% on a decent beat. Stock is expensive, so priced in.

TRUP – Up 4% on a Piper upgrade.

FI – Down 2% on new CEO election.

BANC - +5% on strong deposit growth. It seems a long time ago from our mini banking crisis that this got caught up into.

RVLV – Up 3% on a KeyBanc upgrade.

Insurance stocks remain on watch as Hughes Fire quickly spreads to over 3.4k acres north of LA Hughes fire explodes north of Castaic, shuts down 5 Freeway and forces evacuations [msn.com]

The Trump admin is considering selling two-thirds of the Federal Govt's office stock – WSJ…that could put more than 200M sq ft on the mkt, as the federal landlord - The General Services Admin – oversees 370M sq ft across the country

Technology

Semis: SOX briefly hit 5500 level before fading into the close - up six days in a row though .. sea of red in pre this am - ARM-4.5%, MU-3.6%, SMCI/NVDA-2%, AMAT/LRCX-1.4%, MRVL/TSM-1.2%, AMD-1%, ALAB-1%, INTC-0.8%

o Global Chip Stocks Fall as SK Hynix Fails to Impress AI Bulls - SK Hynix's earnings report sparked concerns about demand for artificial intelligence, causing global semiconductor stocks to slide.

Stargate Funding: OpenAI and Softbank will each commit ~$19B for Stargate (OpenAI will hold a ~40% interest in the venture) (The Information)

Bitcoin is down 1.9%, and dragging crypto-related stocks lower as well: Riot Platforms -2.1%, MicroStrategy -1.9%, Hut 8 -2.6%, Bitfarms -1.8%, Coinbase -2.1%

AAPL: Wedbush bullish - held 200D; RSI sub 30 .. seeing some defense / rallied late in day despite wobble in futs ... AAPL -15% vs NDX in '25; Carter Worth (technician) says keep selling - https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/01/22/chart-master-keep-selling-apple.html [cnbc.com]

ASML: -3.7% flurry of negative catalysts .... (1) BofA cutting their Q4 bookings # from €4.3bn to €3.6b and cite consensus at €4.2b. Near-term demand environment looks muddy; (2) lingering concerns over further US export controls; (3) Hynix’s cautious stance on equipment spending ....

AI/Nuclear power: South Carolina’s Santee Cooper is looking for buyers that can resume construction of a pair of nuclear reactors abandoned years ago, the latest sign of AI data centers reviving demand for nuclear infrastructure (WSJ)

EA: -15% warning, FY a disaster (MScience lowered bookings Wed am); magnitude of the shortfall is pretty shocking .... cut net bookings below - pinning blame on Fifa, Dragon Age. Execution has been sloppy to say the least for what feels like 3-4 yrs (hence Long TTWO / ss EA most crowded pair in space since ATVI was acquired in '22) ... multiple downgrades (BMO, BofA, RayJ)

GWRE will replace ARWR in the S&P MidCap 400

NFLX upgrade commentary: (1) Wolfe - widening growth strategies, superior scale, and "rich" cash flow position it to extend its lead in long-form video streaming, which continues to take wallet share from pay TV ... (2) Arete - yet to see details but capitulating from rough sell call

TTWO: stay long. GTA 6 most hyped game since Red Dead 2 / Cyberpunk launches in fall; GTA 5 launched in 2013 - so pent up demand is wild here .... other than GTA VI, will also benefit launches of Mafia: The Old Country, Borderlands 4, NBA2K26. We think the combination of a new BioShock game, increased GTA Online engagement, and mobile growth will lead the company to sequential growth in FY27

TXN: #s tonight / 5.1% implied move

QUBT: -3.2% Quantum Computing files to sell 8.49M shares of common stock for holders

VEEV slips 4% after a double downgrade to sell from buy at Goldman Sachs.

Industrials 

American Airlines (AAL) trading down 8% after reporting better-than-expected Q4 EPS, but guiding Q1 and FY25 EPS below street expectations

Aptiv (APTV) upgraded to neutral at Piper Sandler

Casella Waste Systems (CWST) downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies

GE Aerospace (GE) – Blowout Q4 results, FY25 EPS/FCF guide looks good, $7B repurchase announced, stock trading up 6%

Airfare - A new forecast from Hopper, the travel-booking app, says that airfare prices could surge by as much as 19% in the first half of the year — specifically, by May — compared with 2024.