Market Snapshot

River1 Asset Management
June 25, 2025

Morning Note

presented by -

Invest with us here: https://www.river1.us/invest.php

Calendar

This Week – 14 Fed Speakers, but the only one that matters is Tuesday/Wednesday Powell in front of Congress. PCE Thursday/Friday.

Wednesday – New Home Sales, Powell Speaks, MU earnings post.

Thursday – PCE, Capital Goods, Initial Jobless Claims, NKE Earnings post.

Friday – PCE, Some end of quarte setup, but Monday is the final.

Trading Observations

Not much incremental again today
Day 2 of Powell in front of Congress, not likely anything new - MS now expects Fed to deliver 7 rate cuts in 2026 taking terminal rate down to 2.5-2.75%
FDX lowering guidance due to demand uncertainty but strength continues
6100 just above and the first hurdle with highs at 6147 not far off
Notable industrials at new ATH https://tinyurl.com/282b7p68 [tinyurl.com]
QQQ with new ATH close and intraday high just above, 8 month range potential breakout https://tinyurl.com/3rw8np8v [tinyurl.com]
And a golden cross for first time since March 23rd, could argue the party about to just getting started
New 52-wk high list finally starting to expand
If we get a push, do we go much higher?
II BULLS drop to 38.8% from 40.8% as we head into seasonally strong July
This may prove right "Money managers are behind curve and racing to catch up and the ‘big, beautiful bill’ likely to pass in early July just in time for seasonal strength to take over"

Futures

DOW +1

S&P +10

Nasdaq +93

Charts/Sentiment

CNN Fear/Greed Index

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Oil

Bitcoin

Financials / Consumer / Healthcare

Powell saying the Fed is well positioned to WAIT to cut rates https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-testifies-before-house-committee-as-he-warns-interest-rate-cut-can-wait [pbs.org]

SOFI - plans to offer crypto spot trading and global remittances to benefit from an ease-up in regulations under the Trump administration.

Market still looks risk on to me – HOOD, COIN, BULL all up 4-5% on nothing.

QS – Up 40% after a technology announcement in batteries that investors have been waiting years for.

US powerboat retail – Down 11% in May y/y, down 11% YTD. May is the peak sales month of the year.

WWW – Baird naming Wolverine a Bullish Fresh Pick at 14x P/E and good multi-year earnings power.

Baird on Stablecoin – An insider interview claimed current stablecoin issuance is $250MM and global money supply is $100T, so buckle up.

BX – Announced intra-quarter realizations are hitting expected slower levels. Fundraising is going well despite that backdrop.

YUM – Upgraded to outperform at JPM.

GIS – General Mills down 3% on weak q4 sales. North America was down 7%. Organic sales look flat in 2026.

TGT is testing a service that would see it ship products directly from factories to customer homes – Bloomey

HIMS – CEO says “no way in HE$$ we’re gonna cave” on selling compounded obesity drugs after Novo breakup https://tinyurl.com/yxuhubvm [tinyurl.com]

Technology

Stablecoins are criticized by the Bank of Int’l Settlements (BIS) in a report that warns they don’t perform well as money (“Stablecoins offer some promise on tokenization but fall short of requirements to be the mainstay of the monetary system when set against the three key tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity”)

NVDA – rose 0.9% after its price target was lifted to a Street high $250 from $175 at Loop Capital Markets, which says the chipmaker is positioned favorably into the next “golden wave” of Gen AI adoption.

RDDT are up 4.5% in premarket trading, suggesting the social-media company would extend a recent advance.

Industrials

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) - 4Q25 Recap: Solid Beat, Guidance as Expected; Lots of Growth Drivers

AVAV delivered a solid beat for 4Q25 reflecting an 88% surge in SwitchBlade revenues resulting in a 39% y/y gain total company revenues which topped the Street expectations by 14%.

FDX - The only important earnings report was FDX and while the FQ4 numbers were OK, the FQ1 guide fell a bit short of expectations.

Solar stocks spiked on Tuesday on speculation the Senate could make changes to its reconciliation bill aimed at preserving some tax benefits for the industry – Bloomey

GMS Inc (GMS) downgraded to market perform from outperform at Raymond James

Graphic Packaging (GPK) downgraded to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exan

Mirion Technologies (MIR) trading up 5% after announcing a partnership with Westinghouse to drive digital innovation in nuclear instrumentation systems

NuScale Power (SMR) downgraded to neutral at BTIG

O-I Glass (OI) initiated outperform, $18 PT at BNP Paribas Exane

QuantumScape (QS) trading up 33% after announcing a major milestone in the scale-up of its production capabilities: the successful integration of its advanced Cobra separator process into baseline cell production

Stellantis (STLA) upgraded to buy at Jefferies

The Metals Co. (TMC) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Wedbush Securities